89th Academy Awards Nominations – Final Predictions

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FINAL PREDICTIONS: 23rd Screen Actors Guild Awards

sagpredix

(announcement of nominees at 10 PM PHT)

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST
Fences
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
alt. Hell or High Water, Silence, 20th Century Women, Lion, Nocturnal Animals

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton – Loving
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Denzel Washington – Fences
alt. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic, Andrew Garfield – Silence, Tom Hanks – Sully, Michael Keaton – The Founder, Matthew McConaughey – Gold

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Ruth Negga – Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
alt. Amy Adams – Arrival, Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins, Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane, Taraji P. Henson, Rebecca Hall – Christine

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Stephen Henderson – Fences
Dev Patel – Lion
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
alt. Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea, Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins, Ben Foster – Hell or High Water, Issei Ogata – Silence, Mykelti Williamson – Fences, Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals, Kevin Costner – Hidden Figures, Alan Rickman – Eye in the Sky, Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie, Adam Driver – Silence

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
alt. Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures, Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Men, Molly Shannon – Other People, Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky, Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls, Lupita Nyong’o – Queen of Katwe

FINAL PREDICTIONS: 74th Golden Globe Awards

goldeb-globe-predix

The awards season is starting to heat up. At this point,

  • La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight have all consistently showed strong support from critics awards in the Best Picture category.
  • Casey Affleck, Isabelle Huppert, and Mahershala Ali are sweeping the early critics awards while Best Supporting Actress still has no strong frontrunner.
  • Manchester by the Sea gets most of screenplay awards.
  • O.J.: Made in America, despite being an eight-hour miniseries, continues to rule Documentary Feature category, with close competitions like 13th and I Am Not Your Negro, among others.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will be announcing the nominees for the 74th Golden Globe Awards on December 12 (Mon) while the awards night will be held on January 8 (Sun). Despite being a very popular precursor awards, a Golden Globe nomination is in no way a guarantee for an Oscar nomination, especially with the split between drama and musical/comedy categories. It doesn’t help though that this is a televised awards show.

Here are my predictions (per category), together with possible spoilers and longshot possibilities. I didn’t have the time to add my opinion per category, so just comment below and let’s talk about them.

MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

  • Fences
  • Loving
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Moonlight
  • Silence

Possible Spoilers: Jackie, Lion, Arrival, Hell or High Water, Hacksaw Ridge

Longshot Possibilities: Hidden Figures, Sully, Patriots Day, Nocturnal Animals, Live by Night

MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL/COMEDY

  • 20th Century Women
  • Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Hail, Caesar!
  • La La Land
  • Love & Friendship

Possible Spoilers: Deadpool, Captain Fantastic, Rules Don’t Apply, The Lobster, Sing Street

Longshot Possibilities: The Nice Guys, The Comedian, Ghostbusters, Hello My Name is Doris, Maggie’s Plan

ACTOR – DRAMA        

  • Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
  • Joel Edgerton – Loving
  • Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
  • Tom Hanks – Sully
  • Denzel Washington – Fences

Possible Spoilers: Andrew Garfield – Silence, Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals, Chris Pine – Hell or High Water, Miles Teller – Bleed for This, Matthew McConaughey – Gold

Longshot Possibilities: Mark Wahlberg – Patriots Day, Ben Affleck – Live by Night,               Joseph Gordon-Levitt – Snowden, Chris Pratt – Passengers, Brad Pitt – Allied

ACTOR – MUSICAL/COMEDY      

  • Warren Beatty – Rules Don’t Apply
  • Ryan Gosling – La La Land
  • Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
  • Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool

Possible Spoilers: Michael Keaton – The Founder, Colin Farrell – The Lobster, Adam Driver – Paterson, Robert DeNiro – The Comedian, Ryan Gosling – The Nice Guys

Longshot Possibilities: George Clooney – Hail, Caesar!, Daniel Radcliffe – Swiss Army Man, Paul Dano – Swiss Army Man, Don Cheadle – Miles Ahead, Jonah Hill – War Dogs

ACTRESS – DRAMA        

  • Amy Adams – Arrival
  • Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures
  • Isabelle Huppert – Elle
  • Ruth Negga – Loving
  • Natalie Portman – Jackie

Possible Spoilers: Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane, Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train, Rebecca Hall – Christine, Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals, Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers

Longshot Possibilities: Marion Cotillard – Allied, Sarah Paulson – Blue Jay, Rachel Weisz – Denial, Sasha Lane – American Honey, Royalty Hightower – The Fits

ACTRESS – MUSICAL/COMEDY   

  • Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship
  • Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
  • Sally Field – Hello, My Name is Doris
  • Emma Stone – La La Land
  • Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Possible Spoilers: Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen, Kate McKinnon – Ghostbusters, Renee Zellweger – Bridget Jones’s Baby, Kate Winslet – The Dressmaker, Kristen Stewart – Café Society

Longshot Possibilities: Greta Gerwig – Maggie’s Plan, Susan Sarandon – The Meddler, Lily Collins – Rules Don’t Apply, Rachel Weisz – The Lobster, Tina Fey – Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

SUPPORTING ACTOR     

  • Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
  • Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
  • Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
  • Dev Patel – Lion
  • Liam Neeson – Silence

Possible Spoilers: Ben Foster – Hell or High Water, Stephen Henderson – Fences,              Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals, Kevin Costner – Hidden Figures, Issei Ogata – Silence

Longshot Possibilities: Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie, Mykelti Williamson – Fences, Adam Driver – Silence, Simon Helberrg – Florence Foster Jenkins, Alan Rickman – Eye in the Sky

SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

  • Viola Davis – Fences
  • Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women
  • Naomie Harris – Moonlight
  • Nicole Kidman – Lion
  • Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Possible Spoilers: Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures, Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures, Molly Shannon – Other People, Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women, Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky

Longshot Possibilities: Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls, Lupita Nyong’o – Queen of Katwe, Lily Gladstone – Certain Women, Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Miss Sloane, Chloe Sevigny – Love & Friendship

DIRECTOR       

  • Denzel Washington – Fences
  • Damien Chazelle – La La Land
  • Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
  • Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
  • Martin Scorsese – Silence

Possible Spoilers: Denis Villeneuve – Arrival, Pablo Larrain – Jackie, Garth Davis – Lion, Jeff Nichols – Loving, Clint Eastwood – Sully

Longshot Possibilities: David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water, Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge, Mike Mills – 20th Century Women, Theodore Melfi – Hidden Figures, Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals

SCREENPLAY     

  • Fences
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Moonlight

Possible Spoilers: The Lobster, Silence, Loving, 20th Century Women, Arrival

Longshot Possibilities: Jackie, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals, Hidden Figures, Love & Friendship

ORIGINAL SCORE     

  • Arrival
  • Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Jackie
  • La La Land
  • Lion

Possible Spoilers: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, The BFG, Nocturnal Animals, Moonlight, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

ORIGINAL SONG    

  • “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – La La Land
  • “Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
  • “City of Stars” – La La Land
  • “How Far I’ll Go” – Moana
  • “I See Victory” – Hidden Figures

Possible Spoilers: “Back to Life” – Queen of Katwe, “Try Everything” –  Zootopia, “Faith” – Sing, “Angel by the Wings” – The Eagle Huntress, “Drive It Like You Stole It” – Sing Street

ANIMATED FEATURE     

  • Finding Dory
  • Kung Fu Panda 3
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Moana
  • Zootopia

Possible Spoilers: Trolls, Sing, Sausage Party, Your Name, The Little Prince

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM        

  • France – Elle
  • Germany – Toni Erdmann
  • Iran – The Salesman
  • Spain – Julieta
  • South Korea – The Handmaiden

Possible Spoilers: Chile – Neruda, Denmark – Land of Mine, United Kingdom – Under the Shadow, Israel – Sand Storm, Canada – It’s Only the End of the World

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Comment your thoughts below!

88th Academy Awards Nominations – FINAL PREDICTIONS

88thoscars_key_hostHere it is! With the craziness this awards season have, I feel like it’s the right time to be gutsier with my predictions. I don’t know/care if I fare poorly with my predictions; it’s an all-too-unpredictable race with all precedent stats and precursors thrown out of the window, it’s just right to give my forecast come Thursday morning.

(Note: I did not include predictions for the three short film categories – live action, animated, documentary).

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Best Picture

spotlight (1)

  • The Big Short
  • Bridge of Spies
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Spotlight

… if 6 – Mad Max: Fury Road
… if 7 – Carol
… if 8 – Room
(I’m predicting 8)
… if 9 – Straight Outta Compton
… if 10 – Inside Out

Alt: (#11) Sicario | (#12) Brooklyn | (#13) Son of Saul | (#14) Ex Machina | (#15) Star Wars: The Force Awakens | (#16) Beasts of No Nation | (#17) Joy | (#18) Steve Jobs | (#19) Trumbo | (#20) Creed | (#21) The Danish Girl

Very very tough to predict especially from #8 to # 16. The Danish Girl may lack the visible passion, but you never know since it’s an emotional story that feels timely despite being a period film. The buzz for Creed, Trumbo, and Steve Jobs has faded, but might pull viable longshots. Hear me out with Joy – despite getting mixed reviews, again, it is a timely film; never forget Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close got nominated in 2011 despite much more polarizing reviews.

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Best Director

2015-5-Feature-Mad-Max-George-Miller-set-WB

  • Todd Haynes – Carol
  • George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Ridley Scott – The Martian
  • Alejandro G. Iñarritu – The Revenant
  • Tom McCarthy – Spotlight

Alt: (#6) Adam McKay – The Big Short | (#7) Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies | (#8) Laszlo Nemes – Son of Saul | (#9) Denis Villeneuve – Sicario | (#10) Alex Garland – Ex Machina

Haynes is definitely the most vulnerable here with his film lacking guild support. McCarthy is also not a sure thing since Spotlight slipped a bit from its frontrunner status. Scott and Miller, while veterans and could play that card, are with non-traditional films (comedy sci-fi and apocalyptic action film), making Iñarritu the only safe choice. McKay seemed like a safer prediction with its current frontrunner status, but screw it – I’m going with Haynes.

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

leonardo-dicaprio-the-revenant

  • Steve Carell – The Big Short
  • Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
  • Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
  • Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

Alt: (#6) Matt Damon – The Martian | (#7) Will Smith – Concussion | (#8) Ian McKellen – Mr. Holmes | (#9) Geza Rohrig – Son of Saul | (#10) Johnny Depp – Black Mass | (#11) Michael B. Jordan – Creed | (#12) Michael Caine – Youth

DiCaprio is the frontrunner, Cranston and Fassbender are safe, Redmayne seems to be coasting towards a nomination despite the lack of passion for the film. Carell is my predicted semi-spoiler to replace Golden Globe winner Damon.

Watch out for both Smith and especially McKellen as surprise nominees, given how they worked the campaign circuit. Son of Saul certainly has presence and makes Rohrig a feasible longshot. Buzz for Depp has faded, but might get in especially because of his star power.

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

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  • Cate Blanchett – Carol
  • Brie Larson – Room
  • Jenifer Lawrence – Joy
  • Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

Alt: (#6) Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl | (#7) Rooney Mara – Carol | (#8) Emily Blunt – Sicario | (#9) Charlize Theron – Mad Max: Fury Road | (#10) Blythe Danner – I’ll See You in My Dreams | (#11) Lily Tomlin – Grandma | (#12) Maggie Smith – The Lady in the Van | (#13) Sarah Silverman – I Smile Back | (#14) Helen Mirren – Woman in Gold

Blanchett, Larson, and Ronan are safe. Rampling has solid critical support backing her a la Emmanuelle Riva (2012) and Marion Cotillard (2014). Lawrence is the most vulnerable despite the Golden Globe win (it doesn’t count). Normal logic would dictate Vikander or Mara but category confusion and vote splitting are foreseeable hurdles.

If the strong guild support signals Sicario’s prevalence come Thursday morning then expect Blunt pulling off a surprise nomination. Theron could also use the critical support on her performance despite having a film atypical in terms of acting nominations.

#10 to #12 are all veterans seemingly on the hunt of the same spot; I give the edge to Danner for being the first screener sent, then Tomlin for peaking at an early time, albeit too early,  then Smith for the late surge of support. Silverman’s SAG nomination must not be unseen, the same with Mirren (though she would probably get more votes for Trumbo).

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

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  • Christian Bale – The Big Short
  • Tom Hardy – The Revenant
  • Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
  • Sylvester Stallone – Creed
  • Jacob Tremblay – Room

Alt: (#6) Michael Keaton – Spotlight | (#7) Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation | (#8) Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight | (#9) Paul Dano – Love and Mercy | (#10) Benicio del Toro – Sicario | (#11) Michael Shannon – 99 Homes | (#12) Jason Mitchell – Straight Outta Compton | (#13) Oscar Isaac – Ex Machina | (#14) Stanley Tucci – Spotlight

Rylance is the only one safe for the nomination, and he’s not even safe for the win. Bale is also a good bet to be nominated even if some see him as leading. Hardy can ride with DiCaprio’s buzz, Stallone would get a veteran vote (again, not counting his Golden Globe victory), and if Brie Larson is the frontrunner for Best Actress, they must notice Tremblay.

Keaton has the goodwill from last year’s loss for Birdman and he has the biggest role in the Spotlight cast but the lack of notices and the NYFCC win for LEADING might hurt. Elba has critical support but his film seems like an outsider in the race. In Spotlight’s cast, Ruffalo has the “big” scene and BAFTA noticed. Dano had a strong showing throughout the precursor awards, but buzz for the film slips away and category confusion hurts.

If Sicario shows up well, del Toro can show up. Shannon earns both Golden Globe and SAG nominations for a very small film, meaning the performance made a strong impression, but the strength of the film must be seen when pitted against the bigger contenders. Mitchell gets MVP notices for Straight Outta Compton, Isaac might show up if Ex Machina fares really well, and Tucci is definitely getting support for his small but memorable role in Spotlight.

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

alicia.vikander

  • Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
  • Rooney Mara – Carol
  • Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
  • Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
  • Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Alt: (#6) Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina | (#7) Helen Mirren – Trumbo | (#8) Joan Allen – Room | (#9) Jane Fonda – Youth | (#10) Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria | (#11) Elizabeth Banks – Love and Mercy | (#12) Marion Cotillard – MacBeth

Winslet is the only one safe here for the nomination. Mara is in the big threat of category confusion. Vikander has a double whammy – category confusion for The Danish Girl and vote splitting with Ex Machina. Between the two, I’m predicting they’d settle for the more traditional role (The Danish Girl) than an outré one (Ex Machina) The Hateful Eight is not showing up so strongly so Leigh is not very safe and McAdams is in danger of Spotlight losing its footing as the strong frontrunner, of being overlooked for bigger and showier performances in the cast, and of being pitted against bigger and showier performances from other films including obvious leads and co-leads.

Mirren has a fun, scene-stealing performance in Trumbo that doesn’t have much substance compared to the other competing performances, Joan Allen shines with her limited time in Room and might benefit from Larson’s frontrunner status but the film is losing Best Picture buzz, and Fonda is a strong presence in the Academy and is said to have a memorable part in Youth. Stewart, Banks, and Cotillard all have critical support going for them, therefore making them viable longshots.

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Best Original Screenplay

spotlight (2)

  • Bridge of Spies
  • The Hateful Eight
  • Inside Out
  • Spotlight
  • Trainwreck

Alt: (#6) Ex Machina | (#7) Straight Outta Compton | (#8) Son of Saul | (#9) Sicario | (#10) Grandma

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Best Adapted Screenplay

thebigshortimage2

  • The Big Short
  • Brooklyn
  • The Martian
  • Room
  • Steve Jobs

Alt: (#6) Carol | (#7) The Revenant | (#8) Trumbo | (#9) Anomalisa | (#10) The Danish Girl

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Best Cinematography

The-Revenant1

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Carol
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Revenant
  • Sicario

Alt: (#6) Son of Saul | (#7) The Hateful Eight | (#8) The Martian | (#9) The Danish Girl | (#10) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

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Best Film Editing

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  • The Big Short
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • Spotlight

Alt: (#6) Straight Outta Compton | (#7) The Revenant | (#8) Sicario | (#9) Carol | (#10) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

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Best Sound Mixing

4

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Straight Outta Compton

Alt: (#6) Star Wars: The Force Awakens | (#7) Spectre | (#8) Sicario | (#9) The Hateful Eight

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Best Sound Editing

martian-movie-images-matt-damon-ridley-scoot

  • Inside Out
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Alt: (#6) Bridge of Spies | (#7) Sicario | (#8) Spectre | (#9) The Hateful Eight

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Best Original Score

  • Bridge of Spies (Thomas Newman)
  • Carol (Carter Burwell)
  • The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)
  • Inside Out (Michael Giacchino)
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens (John Williams)

Alt: (#6) Spotlight | (#7) The Danish Girl | (#8) Mad Max: Fury Road | (#9) Steve Jobs | (#10) Sicario | (#11) The Martian | (#12) Brooklyn | (#13) Ex Machina

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Best Visual Effects

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  • Ex Machina
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  • The Walk

Alt: (#6) Avengers: Age of Ultron | (#7) The Revenant | (#8) Jurassic World | (#9) Ant-Man | (#10) Tomorrowland

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Best Makeup and Hairstyling

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  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Mr. Holmes
  • The Revenant

Alt: (#4) The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared | (#5) Black Mass | (#6) Concussion | (#7) Legend

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Best Production Design

the-danish-girl-eddie-redmayne-and-alicia-vikander-transfix-and-transform-726330

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Carol
  • The Danish Girl
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian

Alt: (#6) Star Wars: The Force Awakens | (#7) The Revenant | (#8) Room | (#9) The Hateful Eight | (#10) Brooklyn

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Best Costume Design

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  • Brooklyn
  • Carol
  • Cinderella
  • The Danish Girl
  • Far from the Madding Crowd

Alt: (#6) MacBeth | (#7) The Revenant | (#8) The Hateful Eight | (#9) Mad Max: Fury Road | (#10) Crimson Peak

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Best Original Song

Spectre-2015-Wallpapers

  • “I’ll See You in My Dreams” – I’ll See You in My Dreams
  • “See You Again” – Furious 7
  • “Simple Song # 3” – Youth
  • “’Til It Happens to You” – The Hunting Ground
  • “Writing’s on the Wall” – Spectre

Alt: (#6) “Who Can You Trust” – Spy | (#7) “So Long” – Concussion | (#8) “Waiting for My Moment” – Creed | (#9) “Earned It” – Fifty Shades of Grey | (#10) “Cold One” – Ricki and the Flash

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Best Foreign Language Film

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  • Belgium – The Brand New Testament
  • France – Mustang
  • Hungary – Son of Saul
  • Jordan – Theeb
  • Denmark – A War

Alt: (#6) Ireland – Viva | (#7) Finland – The Fencer | (#8) “Colombia – Embrace of the Serpent | (#9) Germany – Labyrinth of Lies

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Best Animated Feature

InsideOut556500e6a2be0-2040.0

  • Anomalisa
  • The Good Dinosaur
  • Inside Out
  • Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie

Alt: (#6) The Peanuts Movie | (#7) When Marnie was There | (#8) Moomins in the Riviera | (#9) Boy and the World | (#10) Minions

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Best Documentary Feature

amyfilm1-xlarge

  • Amy
  • Best of Enemies
  • The Hunting Ground
  • The Look of Silence
  • Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Alt: (#6) Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief | (#7) Listen to Me Marlon | (#8) Heart of a Dog | (#9) He Named Me Malala | (#10) 3 ½ Minutes, 10 Bullets | (#11) We Come as Friends | (#12) Where to Invade Next

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What’s your predictions?

 

FINAL PREDICTIONS! (for the 86th Academy Awards Nominations)

Here is my fearless forecast of the nominees for the 86th Academy Awards!
(Those in bold are my predicted nominees. Entries are arranged by the strongest chance of getting nominated.)
The leading contenders for Best Picture - 12 Years A Slave, Gravity, and American Hustle.

The leading contenders for Best Picture – 12 Years A Slave, Gravity, and American Hustle.

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BEST PICTURE (I’m counting NINE nominees):
Safe Bets:
1 – 12 Years A Slave
2 – American Hustle
3 – Gravity
4 – Nebraska
5 – Captain Philips

Shaky, But Likely the Ones to Complete the List:
6 – Her
7 – The Wolf of Wall Street
8 – Inside Llewyn Davis
9 – Dallas Buyers Club

They Could Knock Down the Shakier Ones:
10 – Philomena
11 – Saving Mr. Banks
12 – Lee Daniels’ The Butler
13 – Blue Jasmine
14 – Rush

Longer Shots, But Possible Spoilers:
15 – Before Midnight
16 – Blue is the Warmest Color
17 – Fruitvale Station

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BEST DIRECTOR

Safe Bets:
1 – Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
2 – Steve McQueen – 12 Years A Slave
3 – David O. Russell – American Hustle

Fighting for the Slots:
4 – Paul Greengrass – Captain Philips
5 – Spike Jonze – Her
6 – Alexander Payne – Nebraska
7 – Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
8 – Joel & Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis

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BEST ACTOR

Safe Bets:
1 – Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years A Slave
2 – Bruce Dern – Nebraska
3 – Tom Hanks – Captain Philips

Fighting for the Slots:
4 – Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
5 – Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
6 – Robert Redford – All is Lost
7 – Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis
8 – Christian Bale – American Hustle
9 – Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Longer Shots, But Possible Spoilers:
10 – Joaquin Phoenix – Her
11 – Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station

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BEST ACTRESS

Safe Bets:
1 – Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
2 – Sandra Bullock – Gravity
3 – Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks

Fighting for the Slots:
4 – Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
5 – Amy Adams – American Hustle
6 – Judi Dench – Philomena
7 – Adele Exarchopoulos – Blue is the Warmest Color

Longer Shots, But Possible Spoilers:
8 – Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha
9 – Brie Larson – Short Term 12
10 – Julie Delpy – Before Midnight

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Safe Bets:
1 – Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
2 – Michael Fassbender – 12 Years A Slave

Fighting for the Slots:
3 – Barkhad Abdi – Captain Philips
4 – Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
5 – Daniel Bruhl – Rush
6 – Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
7 – James Gandolfini – Enough Said
8 – Will Forte – Nebraska
9 – Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Safe Bets:
1 – Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years A Slave
2 – Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
3 – June Squibb – Nebraska

Fighting for the Slots:
4 – Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler
5 – Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
6 – Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
7 – Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station

Longer Shots, But Possible Spoilers:
8 – Jennifer Garner – Dallas Buyers Club
9 – Sarah Paulson – 12 Years A Slave

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Safe Bets:
1 – American Hustle
2 – Nebraska
3 – Inside Llewyn Davis
4 – Her

Fighting for the Slots:
5 – Blue Jasmine
6 – Gravity
7 – Dallas Buyers Club
8 – Saving Mr. Banks

Longer Shots, But Possible Spoilers:
9 – Enough Said
10 – Frances Ha
11 – Fruitvale Station

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Safe Bets:
1 – 12 Years A Slave
2 – The Wolf of Wall Street
3 – Before Midnight
4 – Captain Philips
5 – Philomena

Longer Shots, But Possible Spoilers:
6 – August: Osage County
7 – Short Term 12
8 – The Spectacular Now
9 – Blue is the Warmest Color

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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Safe Bets:
1 – Gravity
2 – Inside Llewyn Davis
3 – 12 Years A Slave

Fighting for the Slots:
4 – Prisoners
5 – Nebraska
6 – The Grandmaster
7 – The Great Gatsby
8 – Her

Longer Shots, But Still Possible:
9 – Captain Philips
10 – Rush

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BEST FILM EDITING

Safe Bets:
1 – Gravity
2 – 12 Years A Slave
3 – American Hustle
4 – Captain Philips

Fighting for the Last Slot:
5 – The Wolf of Wall Street
6 – Rush
7 – Nebraska
8 – Inside Llewyn Davis

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BEST SOUND MIXING

Safe Bets:
1 – Gravity
2 – Captain Philips
3 – 12 Years A Slave
4 – Rush

Fighting for the  Last Slot:
5 – Inside Llewyn Davis
6 – All is Lost
7 – American Hustle

Longer Shots, But Possible Spoilers:
8 – Lone Survivor
9 – Pacific Rim
10 – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

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BEST SOUND EDITING

Safe Bets:
1 – Gravity
2 – Captain Philips
3 – Rush

Fighting for the Slots:
4 – All is Lost
5 – Iron Man 3
6 – Inside Llewyn Davis

Longer Shots, But Possible Spoilers:
7 – Pacific Rim
8 – 12 Years A Slave
9 – Lone Survivor
10 – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

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BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Safe Bets:
1 – Gravity
2 – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Fighting for the Slots:
3 – Pacific Rim
4 – Star Trek Into Darkness
5 – Iron Man 3
6 – Elysium
7 – World War Z
8 – The Lone Ranger

Longer Shots (The Rest of the Shortlist):
9 – Oblivion
10 – Thor: The Dark World

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BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Safe Bet:
1 – American Hustle

Fighting for the Slots:
2 – Dallas Buyers Club
3 – The Great Gatsby
4 – The Lone Ranger
5 – Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters
6 – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Long Shot (The Rest of the Shortlist):
7 – Bad Grandpa

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BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE

Safe Bets:
1 – Gravity
2 – 12 Years A Slave
3 – Philomena

Fighting for the Last Slot:
4 – The Book Thief
5 – All is Lost

6 – Captain Philips
7 – Rush
8 – Her
9 – Monsters University

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BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Safe Bet:
1 – “Let It Go” – Frozen

Fighting for the Slots:
2 – “Young and Beautiful” – The Great Gatsby
3 – “My Lord Sunsine (Sunrise)” – 12 Years A Slave
4 – “The Moon Song” – Her
5 – “Amen” – All is Lost
6 – “Atlas” – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
7 – “Monsters University” – Monsters University

Longer Shots, But Possible Spoilers:
8 – “Shine Your Way” – The Croods
9 – “Sweeter than Fiction” – One Chance

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BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Safe Bets:
1 – 12 Years A Slave
2 – Gravity
3 – American Hustle
4 – The Great Gatsby
5 – Saving Mr. Banks

Possible Spoilers:
6 – Her
7 – Inside Llewyn Davis
8 – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

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BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Safe Bets:
1 – Saving Mr. Banks
2 – American Hustle
3 – The Great Gatsby
4 – Inside Llewyn Davis
5 – 12 Years A Slave

Possible Spoilers:
6 – The Invisible Woman
7 – Lee Daniels’ The Butler
8 – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

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BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Safe Bets:
1 – Frozen
2 – The Wind Rises
3 – Monsters University
4 – The Croods
5 – Ernest & Celestine

Possible Spoilers:
6 – Epic
7 – A Letter to Momo

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BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Safe Bets:
1 – The Act of Killing
2 – 20 Feet from Stardom
3 – Stories We Tell

Fighting for the Slots:
4 – The Square
5 – Blackfish
6 – Tim’s Vermeer
7 – The Armstrong Lie

Longer Shots, But Possible Spoilers:
8 – Cutie and the Boxer
9 – God Loves Uganda

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BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Safe Bets:
1 – The Hunt – Denmark
2 – The Broken Circle Breakdown – Belgium
3 – The Great Beauty – Italy

Fighting for the Slots:
4 – The Grandmaster – Hong Kong
5 – The Notebook – Hungary
6 – Two Lives – Germany
7 – Omar – Palestime
8 – The Missing Picture – Cambodia

Long Shot:
9 – An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker – Bosnia & Herzegovina

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Comments and discussions below!

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE 83RD ACADEMY AWARDS! ! ! ! !

Here is my full predictions together with my notes on their chances. Here it is:

Legend:

Green – Frontrunners

Red – Potential Spoilers

Pink – Still Has A Chance

Blue – No Chance of Winning

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Best Motion Picture

My Prediction: The King’s Speech – If the three guilds really is a big deal to them, then they would give it to The King’s Speech. It’s a toss.

Major Spoiler: The Social Network – Even if its chances were somewhat lessened by the unexpected success of The King’s Speech, I still believe the precursors and stronger critical support will make it get the gold.

3rd: True Grit – With the shocking support that it had, I should say it still has a run for the gold.

4th: The Fighter – It has all the vital nominations so it may spoil.

5th: Black Swan –  After the nominations, I could say we had so much expectations with this in terms of the number of nominations. But who could say? The movie’s a magnet.

6th: Inception – Without the Best Director omission (which I hate!), I can safely say that it will remain in the 6th place, no matter what happens. What’s wrong with the Academy? Do you simply hate Nolan?

7th: The Kids Are All Right – With its topic (which is really relevant), I’m sure there will be some # 1 votes for it.

8th: Toy Story 3 – It has sure supporters! It’s collecting bunch of fans since 1995 and yet, the animation bias is still true.

9th: 127 Hours – Alright. They don’t love Danny Boyle as much as they loved him in Slumdog, but there are already sure votes for it, at least some # 1.

10th: Winter’s Bone – A very few # 1 for it. Maybe almost none, but they surely liked it.

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Best Director

My Prediction: David Fincher (The Social Network) – As I am shaky with TSN getting best picture,I believe it will get this. . . . .

Major Spoiler: Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech) –  . . . unless TKS really sweeps.

3rd: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan) – There will be a lot of # 1 votes here. Could get in if the first two are too strong.

4th: Coen Brothers (True Grit) – As long as they make movies, the Academy-based fanbase of the brothers will always be there for him.

5th: David O. Russell (The Fighter) – There wasn’t just much passion for it.

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Best Actor

Frontrunner: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech) – He lost last year. He’s in a frontrunner. He’s getting the awards. Sure win.

Major Spoiler: James Franco (127 Hours) – He still can make it unless . . .

3rd: Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network) – . . . the vote for the Youngsters’ award split. Plus: he’s in a frontrunner.

4th: Jeff Bridges (True Grit) – He’ll lose, but the afterglow may either help or damage the support that he has.

5th: Javier Bardem (Biutiful) – He has his peers. But he hasn’t been showing o strong last awards season. So, be happy with your nom.

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Best Actress

Frontrunner: Natalie Portman (Black Swan) – Strong film. Precursors. Pregnant. Physicality. Sure win.

Major Spoiler: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right) – If they still think they owe her the Oscar now, then they may.

3rd: Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone) – BP nominee. Young (but it doesn’t hurt). Upcoming actress. Some votes are ensured.

4th: Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) – Hasn’t won yet. Solely represents the secret love of the Academy for the film. Great campaigning.

5th: Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole) – She won already. Support wasn’t so hot. May have very few # 1 votes.

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Best Supporting Actor

Frontrunner: Christian Bale (The Fighter) – Extreme physicality. Actor who is very dedicated. Defined as co-lead. All leading to a win.

Major Spoiler: Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech) – The film may just easily sweep its nominations.

3rd: Jeremy Renner (The Town) – Well, the afterglow worked for him. The results wouldn’t be enough, but there still is.

4th: Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right) – Overdue. Somewhat strong film. Votes are ensured.

5th: John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone) – Small film, but expected to pull some # 1, especially with the actors.

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Best Supporting Actress

Frontrunner: Melissa Leo (The Fighter) – She’s been getting all of the important awards. Maybe her self-indulgent ads made a slight damage, but still.

Major Spoiler: Amy Adams (The Fighter) – If they hated those ads. . . . .

3rd: Helena Bonham-Carter (The King’s Speech) – Frontrunner. Film can sweep. It can advantage of the splitting of votes that can happen with the first two.

4th: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) – Oscars doesn’t necessarily buy category frauds for the win. But such a strong film.

5th: Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom) – Bloggers’ support can naturally affect the votes. Maybe few # 1, but there will be, I’m sure.

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Best Original Screenplay

Frontrunner: The King’s Speech – It’s in a frontrunning film. Since its major competitor (TSN) isn’t here, it looks like this will get it if a sweep is decided.

Major Spoiler: Inception – Thy ignored Nolan in director, so this is the best place to pay Nolan. It won the WGA (TKS’s ineligible) and some precursors.

3rd: The Kids Are All Right – Indie sleepers mostly get this when they are able to get in here (Sideways, Crash, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, etc.).

4th: The Fighter – People are not so passionate about this, but some really love this. It could do the magic.

5th: Another Year – The only nominee that is not a BP nominee. Almost impossible to win.

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Best Adapted Screenplay

Frontrunner: The Social Network – In a frontrunner film, I’m sure it would get it given that its other nominations are not completely safe. This is locked.

Major Spoiler: True Grit – Well, they’re the Coen brothers. They can still get it given that the film had a surprising strong support from the Academy.

3rd: Toy Story 3 – They love the series even if they won’t tell us. And this is another place to reward it if they loved it more.

4th: 127 Hours – I guess it wasn’t really much of a scripted film, but that’s what other people also say about Slumdog and it won.

5th: Winter’s Bone – Same as 127 Hours, it wasn’t much of a scripted film. But support for it is still undeniably existent.

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Best Cinematography

Frontrunner: Inception – It surprisingly got the ASC, so it’s in the lead now.

Major Spoiler: Black Swan – Another frontrunner given the support for the film.

3rd: True Grit – Cinematography in Coen’s films always have support.

4th: The King’s Speech – If they decided for a sweep, then it’s with it.

5th: The Social Network – Another one – if it will have a sweep, then include this.

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Best Film Editing

Frontrunner: The Social Network – It has the ACE, and this really looks like a safe win for the film.

Major Spoiler: The King’s Speech – Given that it is also a frontrunner, it could sweep or simply get this.

3rd: Black Swan – If they go gaga for the film, then it’s a win for it.

4th: The Fighter – Conceived as a potential spoiler, it could possibly get it.

5th: 127 Hours – They loved the style in 2008, but lacking passion for the movie signals that this will not get the award.

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Best Sound Mixing

Frontrunner: Inception – I suspect the love for this film will show up here.

Major Spoiler: True Grit – The only other nominee which is also nominated for Sound Editing. Coen’s movies always sound great.

3rd: The Social Network – It’s a strong movie that can get also this.

4th: The King’s Speech – Sweep alert!

5th: Salt – Sound sgreat, but the only non-BP nominee in a BP-filled category?

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Best Sound Editing

Frontrunner: Inception – Same as with the Sond Mixing.

Major Spoiler: True Grit – It has a chance, though slim.

3rd: Toy Story 3 – If they want to give this movie more than one trophy, than this could happen.

4th: TRON: Legacy – This looks like more of a techy film but this won’t happen.

5th: Unstoppable – This will not happen.

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Best Original Music Score

Frontrunner: Inception – Just guessing. I dunno what’s happening. It looks like a three-way tight race.

Major Spoiler: The Social Network – If the film would sweep, it would get this.

3rd: The King’s Speech – Another sweeper!

4th: 127 Hours – It wouldn’t get the award even if it’s a BP nominee. No chance.

5th: How to Train Your Dragon – Only non-BP nominee. No chance.

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Best Visual Effects

Frontrunner: Inception – It would get this.

Major Spoiler: Alice in Wonderland – The support for this film can be seen in its number of noms, so it could happen.

3rd: Hereafter – Though the only “visual masterpiece” of the film is the tsunami sequence, it could still do magic given that it’s a Clint Eastwood film.

4th: Iron Man 2 – Sequel disadvantage for a populist movie CASE # 1.

5th: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 – Sequel disadvantage for a populist movie CASE # 2.

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Best Make-Up

Frontrunner: The Wolfman – Even if the film was received poorly, the make-up is what the academy usually wants.

Major Spoiler: The Way Back – A possibility given that there are a lot of people to be made up with make-up.

3rd: Barney’s Version – The last is also a major contender because the Academy loves aging.

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Best Costume Design

Frontrunner: The King’s Speech – The only movie here that is predicted to sweep the awards. This could help given that the film is a frontrunner.

Major Spoiler: True Grit – If I’m not mistaken, the designer of the film is overdue. And the film showed up strongly.

3rd: Alice in Wonderland – If not in visual effects, possibly here.

4th: I Am Love – Remember Bright Star? Bloggers’ support frequently show up here! And they love Tilda secretly.

5th: The Tempest – Poor reception, awkward costumes, Helen Mirren. Mixed chances are sure.

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Best Art Direction

Frontrunner: The King’s Speech – Sweep alert!

Major Spoiler: Inception – The technical support for the film seems strong, so it’s possible.

3rd: Alice in Wonderland – Again, it could happen.

4th: True Grit – Because it showed up well, it could happen as well.

5th: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 – They won’t reward the film series yet (there is still Part 2)!

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Best Original Song

Frontrunner: I See the Light (Tangled) – They only pushed for one song for the film, and the love for the film (not in Animate Feature) can show up here.

Major Spoiler: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3) – If they would want to give TS3 more than one nominee, than this will be it.

3rd: If I Rise (127 Hours) – If a need for the film to be given an award rises, this will be it.

4th: Coming Home (Country Strong) – So they actually cared for this?

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Best Animated Feature

Frontunner: Toy Story 3 – Sealed.

Major Spoiler: How to Train Your Dragon – If there is any chance that they wouldn’t want to reward the whole trilogy, then they may settle for this. But that will happen if they haven’t seen the trilogy.

3rd: The Illusionist – Unlike Persepolis where it had a chance, it’s fighting with a BP nominee and a strong Dreamworks movie, so no chance.

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So, what are your predictions? Drop in you comments and let’s see who gets the predictions right on the Big Night! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 I’m excited!