92nd Academy Awards (FINAL PREDICTIONS)

Image may contain: 4 people, people sitting
Picture: Parasite (alt. 1917)
Directing: Sam Mendes – 1917 (alt. Bong Joon-ho)
Original Screenplay: Parasite (alt. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit (alt. Little Women)
 
Actress: Renée Zellweger – Judy (alt. Scarlett Johansson)
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix – Joker (alt. Adam Driver)
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern – Marriage Story (alt. Scarlett Johansson)
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (alt. Joe Pesci)
 
Animated Feature: Klaus (alt.Toy Story 4)
Animated Short: Hair Love (alt. Kitbull)
Documentary Feature: American Factory (alt. Honeyland)
Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) (alt. In the Absence)
International Feature: South Korea – Parasite (alt. Spain – Pain and Glory)
Live Action Short: Nefta Football Club (alt. Brotherhood)
 
Cinematography: 1917 (alt. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari (alt. Parasite)
Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (alt. Parasite)
Costume Design: Little Women (alt. Jojo Rabbit)
Visual Effects: The Irishman (alt. 1917)
Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell (alt. Joker)
 
Sound Mixing: 1917 (alt. Ford v Ferrari)
Sound Editing: 1917 (alt. Ford v Ferrari)
Original Score: Joker (alt. 1917)
Original Song: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” – Rocketman (alt. “Stand Up” – Harriet)

FINAL PREDICTIONS: 92nd Academy Awards – Nominations

Image result for oscars

This is another tough year to predict. Not because there is a bad film that I so want to avoid predicting like last year’s Bohemian Rhapsody, but because all of the major contenders are very good to great films. I have my own personal favorites; they don’t factor in here, but precursors + on-ground buzz + gut feeling. Whatever, it’s always fun to play this game. Have done this since 2009, the first year of the expanded ballot.

BEST PICTURE

  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • 1917
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Parasite
    if 6, add Marriage Story
    if 7, add Joker
    if 8, add Little Women
    if 9, add The Two Popes
    ———
    if 10, add Ford v Ferrari
    Alt: The Farewell, Bombshell, Knives Out

I feel safe with the top eight. Logic dictates Ford v Ferrari because of technical support, but I have a gut feeling that The Two Popes will have a very passionate fanbase that would be enough to push it to the finish line.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

  • Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
  • Greta Gerwig – Little Women
  • San Mendes – 1917
  • Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
    Alt: Taika Waititi, Pedro Almodóvar, Noah Baumbach

Bong and Mendes are locks. Tarantino and Scorsese feel safe, but wouldn’t surprise me if they are snubbed. Fifth slot is tough; I’m going with Gerwig making a historic second nomination for a female director.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
  • Lupita Nyong’o – Us
  • Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
  • Charlize Theron – Bombshell
  • Renée Zellweger – Judy
    Alt: Awkwafina, Cynthia Erivo, Alfre Woodard

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
  • Adam Driver – Marriage Story
  • Taron Egerton – Rocketman
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
  • Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
    Alt: Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert DeNiro, Eddie Murphy

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Laura Dern – Marriage Story
  • Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
  • Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
  • Florence Pugh – Little Women
  • Margot Robbie – Bombshell
    Alt: Zhao Shuzhen, Cho Yeo-jeong, Kathy Bates

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
  • Al Pacino – The Irishman
  • Joe Pesci – The Irishman
  • Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Song Kang-ho – Parasite
    Alt: Tom Hanks, Alan Alda, Taika Waititi

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • The Farewell
  • Knives Out
  • Marriage Story
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Parasite
    Alt: Booksmart, 1917, Uncut Gems, Pain and Glory

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Little Women
  • The Two Popes
    Alt: Joker, Hustlers

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

  • Frozen II
  • How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
  • I Lost My Body
  • Missing Link
  • Toy Story 4
    Alt: Klaus, Abominable

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • American Factory
  • The Cave
  • For Sama
  • Honeyland
  • One Child Nation
    Alt: The Edge of Democracy, Knock Down the House, Apollo 11

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

  • Senegal – Atlantics
  • Russia – Beanpole
  • France – Les Misérables
  • Spain – Pain and Glory
  • South Korea – Parasite
    Alt: Corpus Christi, The Painted Bird, Honeyland

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Joker
  • The Lighthouse
  • 1917
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Portrait of a Lady on Fire
    Alt: The Irishman, Parasite, Little Women

BEST FILM EDITING

  • Ford v Ferrari
  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Parasite
    Alt: Joker, Marriage Story

BEST SOUND MIXING

  • The Irishman
  • Joker
  • 1917
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    Alt: Ford v Ferrari, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Ad Astra, Midway

BEST SOUND EDITING

  • Ford v Ferrari
  • The Irishman
  • 1917
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    Alt: Joker, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Ad Astra, 6 Underground

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Joker
  • Little Women
  • Marriage Story
  • 1917
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    Alt: Jojo Rabbit, Pain and Glory, The King, Us, Ford v Ferrari

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Glasgow” – Wild Rose
  • “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” – Rocketman
  • “I’m Standing with You” – Breakthrough
  • “Into the Unknown” – Frozen II
  • “Stand Up” – Harriet
    Alt: “A Glass of Soju” – Parasite, “Spirit” – The Lion King, “Letter to My Godfather” – The Black Godfather

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • The Irishman
  • Joker
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • 1917
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Alt: Parasite, Little Women, Ad Astra

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Dolemite is My Name
  • The Irishman
  • Little Women
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Rocketman
    Alt: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Alita: Battle Angel
  • Avengers: Endgame
  • The Irishman
  • The Lion King
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    Alt: 1917, Gemini Man, Transformers: Dark Fate

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

  • Bombshell
  • Dolemite is My Name
  • Judy
  • 1917
  • Rocketman
    Alt: Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Downton Abbey

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

  • Hair Love
  • He Can’t Live Without Cosmos
  • Kitbull
  • The Physics of Sorrow
  • Sister
    Alt: Memorable, Mind My Mind, Hors Piste

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

  • Fire in Paradise
  • Ghosts of Sugar Land
  • In the Absence
  • Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
  • The Nightcrawlers
    Alt: Life Overtakes Me, Stay Close

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

  • Brotherhood
  • Little Hands
  • Miller & Son
  • The Neighbor’s Window
  • Refuge
    Alt: Nefta Football Club

FINAL PREDICTIONS: 91st Academy Awards – ALL 24 CATEGORIES

BEST PICTURE

  • Black Panther
  • BlacKkKlansman
  • Green Book
  • Roma
  • A Star is Born
    if 6, add: The Favourite
    if 7, add: Vice
    if 8, add: Bohemian Rhapsody
    if 9, add: If Beale Street Could Talk
    —– I’m predicting 9 —–
    if 10, add: First Man

Alt: Mary Poppins Returns, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, Leave No Trace, Eighth Grade, First Reformed, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Cold War

I just need to admit that Bohemian Rhapsody is happening. First Man is hanging in there because of the technical support for the film. Beale Street is in danger.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

  • Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
  • Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
  • Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
  • Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born

alt: Ryan Coogler – Black Panther, Peter Farrelly – Green Book, Adam McKay – Vice, Damien Chazelle – First Man, Debra Granik – Leave No Trace, Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
  • Glenn Close – The Wife
  • Olivia Colman – The Favourite
  • Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
  • Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt: Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Viola Davis (Widows), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Rosamund Pike (A Private War), Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade), Regina Hall (Support the Girls), Julia Roberts (Ben is Back), Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots), Charlize Theron (Tully), Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher), Kathryn Hahn (Private Life), Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex), Keira Knightley (Colette), Joanna Kulig (Cold War), Kiki Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk), Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace), Carey Mulligan (Wildlife), Amandla Stenberg (The Hate U Give)

Definitely the most stacked of all the acting categories. Aparicio’s my wildcard pick for a surprise. McCarthy would’ve been my wildcard snub pick, but who to put in? Anything could happen, and I love it. Yes to more female lead roles in films!

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Christian Bale – Vice
  • Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
  • Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
  • John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman

alt: Ethan Hawke – First Reformed, Ryan Gosling – First Man, Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate, Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Amy Adams – Vice
  • Claire Foy – First Man
  • Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Emma Stone – The Favourite
  • Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

alt: Marina de Tavira – Roma, Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place, Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians, Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots, Thomasin McKenzie – Leave No Trace, Linda Cardellini – Green Book

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Mahershala Ali – Green Book
  • Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
  • Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
  • Sam Elliott – A Star is Born
  • Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

alt: Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther, Sam Rockwell – Vice, Nicholas Hoult – The Favourite

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • The Favourite
  • First Reformed
  • Green Book
  • Roma
  • Vice

alt: Eighth Grade, Sorry to Bother You, A Quiet Place, Private Life

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • BlacKkKlansman
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • The Death of Stalin
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • A Star is Born

alt: Black Panther, First Man, Crazy Rich Asians, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Leave No Trace, The Hate U Give

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

  • Incredibles 2
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Mirai
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet
  • Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse

alt: Early Man, Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, The Grinch, Ruben Brandt Collector

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • Free Solo
  • RBG
  • Shirkers
  • Three Identical Strangers
  • Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

alt: Minding the Gap, Crime + Punishment, Hale County This Morning This Evening, The Silence of Others, On Her Shoulders, The Distant Barking of Dogs, Of Fathers and Sons, Charm City, Communion, Dark Money

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • South Korea – Burning
  • Lebanon – Capernaum
  • Poland – Cold War
  • Mexico – Roma
  • Shoplifters – Japan

alt: Denmark – The Guilty, Germany – Never Look Away, Colombia – Birds of Passage, Kazakhsatan – Ayka

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Cold War
  • The Favourite
  • First Man
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Roma

alt: A Star is Born, Black Panther, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Annihilation, Mary Poppins Returns

BEST FILM EDITING

  • Black Panther
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • First Man
  • Roma
  • A Star is Born

alt: The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice, BlackKkKlansman, Widows, Mission: Impossible – Fallout

BEST SOUND MIXING

  • Black Panther
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • First Man
  • A Quiet Place
  • Roma

alt: A Star is Born, Mary Poppins Returns, Annihilation, Ready Player One

BEST SOUND EDITING

  • Black Panther
  • First Man
  • Mission: Impossible – Fallout
  • A Quiet Place
  • Roma

alt: Annihilation, Bohemian Rhapsody, Ready Player One, Avengers: Infinity War

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Black Panther
  • First Man
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Mary Poppins Returns

alt: BlacKkKlansman, A Quiet Place, Annihilation, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Ready Player One, The Death of Stalin

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “All the Stars” – Black Panther
  • “I’ll Fight” – RBG
  • “Revelation” – Boy Erased
  • “Shallow” – A Star is Born
  • “Trip A Little Light Fantastic” – Mary Poppins Returns

alt: “The Place Where Lost Things Go” – Mary Poppins Returns, “Girl at the Movies”- Dumplin’, “We Won’t Move” – The Hate U Give, “Keep Reachin’” – Quincy, “Suspirium” – Suspiria

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Black Panther
  • The Favourite
  • First Man
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Roma

alt: If Beale Street Could Talk, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, A Quiet Place, Crazy Rich Asians

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Black Panther
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • The Favourite
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Mary Queen of Scots

alt: Crazy Rich Asians, A Star is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Avengers: Infinity War
  • Black Panther
  • First Man
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Ready Player One

alt: Welcome to Marwen, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Christopher Robin

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

  • Black Panther
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Border

alt: Vice, Suspiria, Stan & Ollie, Mary Queen of Scots

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

  • Age of Sail
  • Bao
  • Bilby
  • Late Afternoon
  • Weekends

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

  • Black Sheep
  • My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes
  • A Night at the Garden
  • Period. End of Sentence.
  • Zion

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

  • Caroline
  • Detainment
  • Marguerite
  • Skin
  • Wale

Could A Star is Born Win Picture, Actress, and Actor at the Oscars?

After the strong critical reception and the foreseeable box-office prominence, A Star is Born is poised to be a formidable contender in Best Picture, Actress, and Actor.

Bradley Cooper gets career-best reviews while Lady Gaga has the (no pun intended) ‘a star is born’ narrative that does well especially in Best Actress. The film itself, also produced, has been positively received since it premiered in Venice. This is probably even going to be the frontrunner in the Golden Globes where musicals have a separate category.

In fact, some pundits are even predicting that the film will win all three awards at the Academy Awards. But historically speaking, could the film pull off this feat? After some tinkering with the Academy Awards’ history, here are the stats that might go for or against the chances of A Star is Born winning these awards.

Here are the stats, and this is gonna be long. Only for Oscar nerds and the curious. Winners are in bold.

There are 80 Best Actress/Actor nominees coming from the same film.

From this, 62 are from Best Picture nominees.

Out of the 62, only three won Best Picture, Actress, and Actor. They are:

  • It Happened One Night (1934) – Claudette ColbertClark Gable
  • One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975) – Louise Fletcher / Jack Nicholson
  • The Silence of the Lambs (1991) – Jodie Foster / Anthony Hopkins

Take note: all of these films were the also the only Big Five winners (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and Screenplay).

Four films won Best Actress and Actor but not Best Picture. They are:

  • Network (1976) – Faye Dunaway / Peter Finch + William Holden
  • Coming Home (1978) – Jane Fonda / Jon Voight
  • On Golden Pond (1981) – Katharine Hepburn / Henry Fonda
  • As Good as It Gets (1997) – Helen Hunt / Jack Nicholson

Five films won Best Picture and Actress but not Best Actor. They are:

  • Gone with the Wind (1939) – Vivian Leigh / Clark Gable
  • Mrs. Miniver (1942) – Greer Garson / Walter Pidgeon
  • Annie Hall (1977) – Diane Keaton / Woody Allen
  • Driving Miss Daisy (1989) – Jessica Tandy / Morgan Freeman
  • Million Dollar Baby (2004) – Hilary Swank / Clint Eastwood

Only one film won Best Picture and Actor but not Best Actress. It is:

  • American Beauty (1999) – Annette Bening / Kevin Spacey

Eleven (11) films won Best Actress but not Best Picture and Actor. They are:

  • Gaslight (1944) – Ingrid Bergman / Charles Boyer
  • Johnny Belinda (1948) – Jane Wyman / Lew Ayres
  • A Streetcar Named Desire (1951) – Vivian Leigh / Marlon Brando
  • The Country Girl (1954) – Grace Kelly / Bing Crosby
  • Room at the Top (1959) – Simone Signoret / Laurence Harvey
  • Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (1966) – Elizabeth Taylor / Richard Burton
  • Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner (1967) – Katharine Hepburn / Spencer Tracy
  • The Lion in Winter (1968) – Katharine Hepburn / Peter O’ Toole
  • Children of a Lesser God (1986) – Marlee Matlin / William Hurt
  • Silver Linings Playbook (2012) – Jennifer Lawrence / Bradley Cooper
  • La La Land (2016) – Emma Stone / Ryan Gosling

Six films won Best Actor but not Best Picture and Actress. They are:

  • Goodbye, Mr. Chips (1939) – Greer Garson / Robert Donat
  • The Philadelphia Story (1940) – Katharine Hepburn / James Stewart
  • The King and I (1956) – Deborah Kerr / Yul Brynner
  • Separate Table (1958) – Deborah Kerr / David Niven
  • The Goodbye Girl (1977) – Marsha Mason / Richard Dreyfuss
  • The Theory of Everything (2014) – Felicity Jones / Eddie Redmayne

Seven films won Best Picture but not Best Actress and Actor. They are:

  • Cimarron (1930-31) – Irene Dunne / Richard Dix
  • Rebecca (1940) – Joan Fontaine / Laurence Olivier
  • Gentleman’s Agreement (1947) – Dorothy McGuire / Gregory Peck
  • From Here to Eternity (1953) – Deborah Kerr / Montgomery Clift + Burt Lancaster
  • The Apartment (1960) – Shirley Maclaine / Jack Lemmon
  • Rocky (1976) – Talia Shire / Sylvester Stallone
  • The English Patient (1996) – Kristin Scott Thomas / Ralph Fiennes

Twenty-five (25) films did not win Best Picture, Actress, and Actor. They are:

  • A Star is Born (1937) – Janet Gaynor / Fredric March
  • Pygmalion (1938) – Wendy Hiller / Leslie Howard
  • The Pride of the Yankees (1942) – Teresa Wright / Gary Cooper
  • Madame Curie (1943) – Greer Garson / Walter Pidgeon
  • For Whom the Bell Tolls (1943) – Ingrid Bergman / Gary Cooper
  • The Bells of St. Mary’s (1945) – Ingrid Bergman / Bing Crosby
  • The Yearling (1946) – Jane Wyman / Gregory Peck
  • Sunset Boulevard (1950) – Gloria Swanson / William Holden
  • A Place in the Sun (1951) – Shelley Winters / Montgomery Clift
  • Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (1958) – Elizabeth Taylor / Paul Newman
  • The Hustler (1961) – Piper Laurie / Paul Newman
  • Ship of Fools (1965) – Simone Signoret / Oskar Werner
  • Bonnie and Clyde (1967) – Faye Dunaway / Warren Beatty
  • The Graduate (1967) – Anne Bancroft / Dustin Hoffman
  • Anne of the Thousand Days (1969) – Genevieve Bujold / Richard Burton
  • Love Story (1970) – Ali McGraw / Ryan O’ Neal
  • Lenny (1974) – Valerie Perrine / Dustin Hoffman
  • Chinatown (1974) – Faye Dunaway / Jack Nicholson
  • Atlantic City (1981) – Susan Sarandon / Burt Lancaster
  • Reds (1981) – Diane Keaton / Warren Beatty
  • Missing (1982) – Sissy Spacek / Jack Lemmon
  • Broadcast News (1987) – Holly Hunter / William Hurt
  • The Remains of the Day (1993) – Emma Thompson / Anthony Hopkins
  • In the Bedroom (2001) – Sissy Spacek / Tom Wilkinson
  • American Hustle (2013) – Amy Adams / Christian Bale

Eighteen (18) films have Best Actress and Actor nominations but not Best Picture.

None of the 18 have won both Best Actress and Best Actor.

Out of the 18, three films won Best Actress but not Best Actor. They are:

  • Hud (1963) – Patricia Neal / Paul Newman
  • Dead Man Walking (1995) – Susan Sarandon / Sean Penn
  • Walk the Line (2005) – Reese Witherspoon / Joaquin Phoenix

Three films won Best Actor but not Best Actress. They are:

  • A Free Soul (1930-31) – Norma Shearer / Lionel Barrymore
  • The African Queen (1951) – Katharine Hepburn / Humphrey Bogart
  • Leaving Las Vegas (1995) – Elisabeth Shue / Nicholas Cage

Thirteen (13) films did not win both Best Actress and Best Actor. They are:

  • The Guardsman (1931-32) – Lynn Fontanne / Alfred Lunt
  • My Man Godfrey (1936) – Carole Lombard / William Powell
  • Mourning Becomes Electra (1947) – Rosalind Russell / Michael Redgrave
  • A Star is Born (1954) – Judy Garland / James Mason
  • Wild is the Wind (1957) – Anna Magnani / Anthony Quinn
  • Days of Wine and Roses (1962) – Lee Remick / Jack Lemmon
  • This Sporting Life (1963) – Rachel Roberts / Richard Harris
  • The Great White Hope (1970) – Jane Alexander / James Earl Jones
  • The China Syndrome (1979) – Jane Fonda / Jack Lemmon
  • Educating Rita (1983) – Julie Walters / Michael Caine
  • Ironweed (1987) – Meryl Streep / Jack Nicholson
  • What’s Love Got to Do With It (1993) – Angela Bassett / Laurence Fishburne

.

Fun Fact: The other two versions of A Star is Born (1937 and 1954) have also been nominated for Best Actress and Actor.

Do you think this year’s version will win Best Actor? Or Best Actress? Or Best Picture? Or all those three?

90th Academy Awards – FINAL PREDICTIONS

Let’s get crazy with these predictions.

Best Picture

Since its implementation in 2009 (year in film), the impact of the preferential ballot has never been so crucial. This is the year where reliable stats (precursor awards) are tested and most likely going to be broken.

I’m gonna do the predictions in a different way. I’m gonna try to predict like how the preferential ballot works. This year, the members’ ranking of the nominees in the ballots would be so important to decide which film will win. I’m not expecting any of the nominees to immediately reach 50% + 1, the key to the win. This is where the rankings will go into play.

This method is so not fail-safe. As I “redistribute”, it’s all gonna be educated guesses. This is where I expect my predictions to fail, and I couldn’t care less.

This has been the most exciting year at the Oscars history since I started watching it (yes, it started in 2009).

Let’s do round 1.

  1. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Get Out
  4. Lady Bird
  5. Dunkirk
  6. Phantom Thread
  7. Call Me by Your Name
  8. Darkest Hour
  9. The Post

Take out The Post. Which film/s will benefit from it the most? Probably The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour, and Dunkirk.

Let’s do round 2.

  1. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Get Out
  4. Lady Bird
  5. Dunkirk
  6. Phantom Thread
  7. Call Me by Your Name
  8. Darkest Hour

Take out Darkest Hour. Which film/s will benefit from it? Probably The Shape of Water and Dunkirk.

Let’s do round 3.

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  3. Get Out
  4. Dunkirk
  5. Lady Bird
  6. Phantom Thread
  7. Call Me by Your Name
  8. Take out Call Me by Your Name (ouch). Which will benefit from it? Probably Get Out and Lady Bird.

Let’s do round 4.

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Get Out
  3. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  4. Lady Bird
  5. Dunkirk
  6. Phantom Thread

Take out Phantom Thread. Which film will benefit? Probably The Shape of Water, Get Out, and Dunkirk.

Let’s do round 5.

  1. Get Out
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  4. Dunkirk
  5. Lady Bird

Take out Lady Bird. Get Out and The Shape of Water would most likely benefit.

Let’s do round 6.

  1. Get Out
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  4. Dunkirk

Take out Dunkirk. Get Out and The Shape of Water would most likely benefit.

Let’s do round 7.

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Get Out
  3. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

This looks stupid right now. However, this is where the rankings are so important. Three Billboards is divisive. The Shape of Water and Get Out are hard to hate but also have their dissenters.

Again, the number of votes and the ranking in the individual ballots matter so much.

So…

I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict… Get Out?

So, if I’m gonna do a ranking of the nominees in terms of chances of winning, it’s gonna be.

  1. Get Out
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  4. Dunkirk
  5. Lady Bird
  6. Phantom Thread
  7. Call Me by Your Name
  8. Darkest Hour
  9. The Post

However, make no mistake: the top 5 are solid contenders, and I’m not going to count any of those out yet. Just look at those five for the winner. Now, the ranking of the voters supporting the bottom 4 is going to be the deciding factor to which of the top 5 will win.

I am so ready to be wrong about this.

Best Director

  1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
  2. Jordan Peele – Get Out
  3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
  4. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
  5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

Unless Peele, Gerwig, or even Nolan, gets in here, del Toro is a sure thing here, even if The Shape of Water doesn’t win Best Picture.

Best Actress

  1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
  3. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
  4. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
  5. Meryl Streep – The Post

A Saoirse Ronan upset is still in play, but McDormand looks solid here.

Best Actor

  1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
  2. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
  3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
  4. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
  5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Inasmuch as I’d want Chalamet to win an upset, Oldman looks unshakable here.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
  2. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
  3. Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
  4. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
  5. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Here’s where I’d gamble and predict a surprise win. Janney is the logical prediction (precursors, industry love, etc.). Maybe it’s the fact that they’d give Lady Bird something and would pick this one.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
  3. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
  4. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
  5. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Here’s what confounds me: his character has gotten a lot of backlash recently, but there’s no alternate to win. Not even Dafoe with his veteran narrative, not even Plummer with his last-minute replacement. An industry favorite, Rockwell looks locked here.

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Get Out
  2. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  3. Lady Bird
  4. The Shape of Water
  5. The Big Sick

If Three Billboards wins Best Picture, logic dictates the same here. If they want Gerwig to win something, they can do it here. If The Shape of Water sweeps, consider this as well. However, it would look really bad to let Get Out go home empty-handed, and Jordan Peele could secure his win here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Call Me by Your Name
  2. Mudbound
  3. Molly’s Game
  4. Logan
  5. The Disaster Artist

The only sure thing to reward Call Me by Your Name, being the only Best Picture nominee here. Watch out for Mudbound, though.

Best Animated Feature

  1. Coco
  2. The Breadwinner
  3. Loving Vincent
  4. Ferdinand
  5. The Boss Baby

Best Documentary Feature

  1. Last Men in Aleppo
  2. Icarus
  3. Faces Places
  4. Strong Island
  5. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. Chile – A Fantastic Woman
  2. Hungary – On Body and Soul
  3. Lebanon – The Insult
  4. Sweden – The Square
  5. Russia – Loveless

Best Cinematography

  1. Blade Runner 2049
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Dunkirk
  4. Mudbound
  5. Darkest Hour

Best Film Editing

  1. Dunkirk
  2. Baby Driver
  3. The Shape of Water
  4. I, Tonya
  5. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Original Score

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Phantom Thread
  3. Dunkirk
  4. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

# 1 to # 3 could definitely happen.

Best Original Song

  1. “This is Me” – The Greatest Showman
  2. “Mystery of Love” – Call Me by Your Name
  3. “Mighty River” – Mudbound
  4. “Remember Me” – Coco
  5. “Stand Up for Something” – Marshall

All of these contenders have solid narratives to win. I’m just picking “This is Me” because of the song’s ubiquity. I’m pulling for a “Mystery of Love” upset.

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Dunkirk
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Baby Driver
  4. Blade Runner 2049
  5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Sound Editing

  1. Dunkirk
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Blade Runner 2049
  4. Baby Driver
  5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Production Design

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Blade Runner 2049
  3. Dunkirk
  4. Darkest Hour
  5. Beauty and the Beast

Best Costume Design

  1. Phantom Thread
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Beauty and the Beast
  4. Victoria & Abdul
  5. Darkest Hour

I’m reminded that Fantastic Beasts won over more formidable contenders last year. With that, I’m not counting Beauty and the Beast out despite this category’s heavyweights.

Best Visual Effects

  1. Blade Runner 2049
  2. War for the Planet of the Apes
  3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  4. Kong: Skull Island
  5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

With no Best Picture contenders here, this could be Apes’ win. However, I’m Sticking with Blade Runner.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Darkest Hour
  2. Wonder
  3. Victoria & Abdul

The other winner of Gary Oldman’s Best Actor award.

Best Animated Short

  1. Negative Space
  2. Revolting Rhymes
  3. Lou
  4. Dear Basketball
  5. Garden Party

Best Documentary Short Subject

  1. Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
  2. Traffic Stop
  3. Edith+Eddie
  4. Heroin(e)
  5. Knife Skills

Best Live Action Short

  1. DeKalb Elementary
  2. My Nephew Emmett
  3. The Silent Child
  4. Watu Wote/All of Us
  5. The Eleven O’ Clock

Best Picture Nominees (2009-2016), RANKED

Since the Academy Awards reinstated the expanded Best Picture field in the 82nd Academy Awards (2009 in film), a system implemented during from 1930s to mid-1940s, the Academy has nominated 72 films for the awards’ highest honor.

Now in its eighth year, this new system has produced some of the most out-there choices, films that would not have gone anywhere near the Best Picture race had it stayed the traditional five nominees, as well as some stinkers that benefitted from the increased number of slots in the category.

Here is my ranking of the 72 Best Picture nominees from 2009 to 2016:

Gravity (2013) and Spotlight (2015) – the best nominee and the best winner of this category since the expanded category began in 2009.

BEST OF THE BEST
1. Gravity (2013)
2. Spotlight (2015) – WINNER
3. La La Land (2016)
4. Arrival (2016)
5. Birdman Or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (2014) – WINNER
6. Inglourious Basterds (2009)
7. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (2011)
8. Amour (2012)
9. Mad Max: Fury Road (2015)
10. The Tree of Life (2011)
11. Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012)
12. Zero Dark Thirty (2012)
13. The Grand Budapest Hotel (2014)
14. Inception (2010)
15. Black Swan (2010)
16. Whiplash (2014)
17. The Artist (2011) – WINNER
18. The Hurt Locker (2009) – WINNER
19. Up (2009)
20. Hell or High Water (2016)
21. 12 Years a Slave (2013) – WINNER
22. Les Miserables (2012)
23. Silver Linings Playbook (2012)
24. The Revenant (2015)
25. The Wolf of Wall Street (2013)
26. Selma (2014)
27. Up in the Air (2009)

Relatively young production/distribution company A24 scored back-to-back nominations with Room (2015) and Moonlight (2016), with the latter becoming a landmark Best Picture winner.

GREAT CHOICES
28. The King’s Speech (2010) – WINNER
29. Room (2015)
30. Moonlight (2016) – WINNER
31. The Martian (2015)
32. The Fighter (2010)
33. Her (2013)
34. The Social Network (2010)
35. Toy Story 3 (2010)
36. Brooklyn (2015)
37. Hugo (2011)
38. Midnight in Paris (2011)
39. Nebraska (2013)
40. District 9 (2009)
41. Captain Phillips (2013)
42. Lincoln (2012)
43. Lion (2015)
44. An Education (2009)
45. True Grit (2010)

EARNED THOSE BEST PICTURE NOMINATIONS
46. Life of Pi (2012)
47. Boyhood (2014)
48. Hidden Figures (2016)
49. Manchester by the Sea (2016)
50. A Serious Man (2009)
51. Winter’s Bone (2010)
52. Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)
53. Fences (2016)
54. Dallas Buyers Club (2013)
55. Philomena (2013)
56. The Imitation Game (2014)
57. Moneyball (2011)
58. The Kids are All Right (2010)
59. The Help (2011)
60. 127 Hours (2010)
61. Hacksaw Ridge (2016)
62. American Hustle (2013)

STRIKING MERITS DESPITE MY INDIFFERENCE (ON VARYING LEVELS)
63. Argo (2012) – WINNER
64. The Big Short (2015)
65. American Sniper (2014)
66. Django Unchained (2012)
67. Avatar (2009)
68. War Horse (2011)

I WON’T CHOOSE THEM, BUT I UNDERSTAND THE MENTION
69. The Theory of Everything (2014)
70. The Descendants (2011)

THOSE BAD APPLES FROM THE BUNCH – WHY?
71. Bridge of Spies (2015)
72. The Blind Side (2009)

89th Academy Awards: The Aftermath

Photo courtesy of Variety.

Photo courtesy of Variety.

This day has been quite an emotional roller-coaster for me (I downloaded the awards show last night as I isolated myself from all news and social media).

After missing a lot of categories in the first half, I was convinced that La La Land was probably not winning Best Picture… until it started winning big time, getting six wins including major awards for Best Director (Damien Chazelle) and Best Actress (Emma Stone). I know there was the big possibility of a Moonlight win, but then La La Land was announced so I was extremely happy…

Not for long. Moonlight was the actual winner for Best Picture after an unfortunate backstage blunder. La La Land is my favorite to win, but that doesn’t diminish Moonlight’s over-all accomplishment; it’s unlike any other winner, thematically, artistically, emotionally. It’s an important film that doesn’t just serve a social importance. It is a cinematic milestone.

With that mishap, I will treasure both films as 2016’s masterpieces of cinema, alongside others like Arrival and Hell or High Water, among others.

In this year when so many people have declared the death of cinema, I seriously doubt that. The nominees this year have given an encompassing set of human experiences that are the main reason why film is so important.

I actually was kinda happy that Moonlight won since it will save La La Land the reputation of the one that beat the socially significant Moonlight, thus earning it more backlash.

I’d like both films to stand alongside one another as the proof of 2016’s cinematic zenith, together with the several films, nominated or otherwise.

I still have a lot to watch from this year (as I am so near the end of my quest for 2014, mind you), but this slate of Oscar nominees has made me proud to be someone who wants to make films.

And both films make want to make a film soon. We’ll see.