Could A Star is Born Win Picture, Actress, and Actor at the Oscars?

After the strong critical reception and the foreseeable box-office prominence, A Star is Born is poised to be a formidable contender in Best Picture, Actress, and Actor.

Bradley Cooper gets career-best reviews while Lady Gaga has the (no pun intended) ‘a star is born’ narrative that does well especially in Best Actress. The film itself, also produced, has been positively received since it premiered in Venice. This is probably even going to be the frontrunner in the Golden Globes where musicals have a separate category.

In fact, some pundits are even predicting that the film will win all three awards at the Academy Awards. But historically speaking, could the film pull off this feat? After some tinkering with the Academy Awards’ history, here are the stats that might go for or against the chances of A Star is Born winning these awards.

Here are the stats, and this is gonna be long. Only for Oscar nerds and the curious. Winners are in bold.

There are 80 Best Actress/Actor nominees coming from the same film.

From this, 62 are from Best Picture nominees.

Out of the 62, only three won Best Picture, Actress, and Actor. They are:

  • It Happened One Night (1934) – Claudette ColbertClark Gable
  • One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975) – Louise Fletcher / Jack Nicholson
  • The Silence of the Lambs (1991) – Jodie Foster / Anthony Hopkins

Take note: all of these films were the also the only Big Five winners (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and Screenplay).

Four films won Best Actress and Actor but not Best Picture. They are:

  • Network (1976) – Faye Dunaway / Peter Finch + William Holden
  • Coming Home (1978) – Jane Fonda / Jon Voight
  • On Golden Pond (1981) – Katharine Hepburn / Henry Fonda
  • As Good as It Gets (1997) – Helen Hunt / Jack Nicholson

Five films won Best Picture and Actress but not Best Actor. They are:

  • Gone with the Wind (1939) – Vivian Leigh / Clark Gable
  • Mrs. Miniver (1942) – Greer Garson / Walter Pidgeon
  • Annie Hall (1977) – Diane Keaton / Woody Allen
  • Driving Miss Daisy (1989) – Jessica Tandy / Morgan Freeman
  • Million Dollar Baby (2004) – Hilary Swank / Clint Eastwood

Only one film won Best Picture and Actor but not Best Actress. It is:

  • American Beauty (1999) – Annette Bening / Kevin Spacey

Eleven (11) films won Best Actress but not Best Picture and Actor. They are:

  • Gaslight (1944) – Ingrid Bergman / Charles Boyer
  • Johnny Belinda (1948) – Jane Wyman / Lew Ayres
  • A Streetcar Named Desire (1951) – Vivian Leigh / Marlon Brando
  • The Country Girl (1954) – Grace Kelly / Bing Crosby
  • Room at the Top (1959) – Simone Signoret / Laurence Harvey
  • Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (1966) – Elizabeth Taylor / Richard Burton
  • Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner (1967) – Katharine Hepburn / Spencer Tracy
  • The Lion in Winter (1968) – Katharine Hepburn / Peter O’ Toole
  • Children of a Lesser God (1986) – Marlee Matlin / William Hurt
  • Silver Linings Playbook (2012) – Jennifer Lawrence / Bradley Cooper
  • La La Land (2016) – Emma Stone / Ryan Gosling

Six films won Best Actor but not Best Picture and Actress. They are:

  • Goodbye, Mr. Chips (1939) – Greer Garson / Robert Donat
  • The Philadelphia Story (1940) – Katharine Hepburn / James Stewart
  • The King and I (1956) – Deborah Kerr / Yul Brynner
  • Separate Table (1958) – Deborah Kerr / David Niven
  • The Goodbye Girl (1977) – Marsha Mason / Richard Dreyfuss
  • The Theory of Everything (2014) – Felicity Jones / Eddie Redmayne

Seven films won Best Picture but not Best Actress and Actor. They are:

  • Cimarron (1930-31) – Irene Dunne / Richard Dix
  • Rebecca (1940) – Joan Fontaine / Laurence Olivier
  • Gentleman’s Agreement (1947) – Dorothy McGuire / Gregory Peck
  • From Here to Eternity (1953) – Deborah Kerr / Montgomery Clift + Burt Lancaster
  • The Apartment (1960) – Shirley Maclaine / Jack Lemmon
  • Rocky (1976) – Talia Shire / Sylvester Stallone
  • The English Patient (1996) – Kristin Scott Thomas / Ralph Fiennes

Twenty-five (25) films did not win Best Picture, Actress, and Actor. They are:

  • A Star is Born (1937) – Janet Gaynor / Fredric March
  • Pygmalion (1938) – Wendy Hiller / Leslie Howard
  • The Pride of the Yankees (1942) – Teresa Wright / Gary Cooper
  • Madame Curie (1943) – Greer Garson / Walter Pidgeon
  • For Whom the Bell Tolls (1943) – Ingrid Bergman / Gary Cooper
  • The Bells of St. Mary’s (1945) – Ingrid Bergman / Bing Crosby
  • The Yearling (1946) – Jane Wyman / Gregory Peck
  • Sunset Boulevard (1950) – Gloria Swanson / William Holden
  • A Place in the Sun (1951) – Shelley Winters / Montgomery Clift
  • Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (1958) – Elizabeth Taylor / Paul Newman
  • The Hustler (1961) – Piper Laurie / Paul Newman
  • Ship of Fools (1965) – Simone Signoret / Oskar Werner
  • Bonnie and Clyde (1967) – Faye Dunaway / Warren Beatty
  • The Graduate (1967) – Anne Bancroft / Dustin Hoffman
  • Anne of the Thousand Days (1969) – Genevieve Bujold / Richard Burton
  • Love Story (1970) – Ali McGraw / Ryan O’ Neal
  • Lenny (1974) – Valerie Perrine / Dustin Hoffman
  • Chinatown (1974) – Faye Dunaway / Jack Nicholson
  • Atlantic City (1981) – Susan Sarandon / Burt Lancaster
  • Reds (1981) – Diane Keaton / Warren Beatty
  • Missing (1982) – Sissy Spacek / Jack Lemmon
  • Broadcast News (1987) – Holly Hunter / William Hurt
  • The Remains of the Day (1993) – Emma Thompson / Anthony Hopkins
  • In the Bedroom (2001) – Sissy Spacek / Tom Wilkinson
  • American Hustle (2013) – Amy Adams / Christian Bale

Eighteen (18) films have Best Actress and Actor nominations but not Best Picture.

None of the 18 have won both Best Actress and Best Actor.

Out of the 18, three films won Best Actress but not Best Actor. They are:

  • Hud (1963) – Patricia Neal / Paul Newman
  • Dead Man Walking (1995) – Susan Sarandon / Sean Penn
  • Walk the Line (2005) – Reese Witherspoon / Joaquin Phoenix

Three films won Best Actor but not Best Actress. They are:

  • A Free Soul (1930-31) – Norma Shearer / Lionel Barrymore
  • The African Queen (1951) – Katharine Hepburn / Humphrey Bogart
  • Leaving Las Vegas (1995) – Elisabeth Shue / Nicholas Cage

Thirteen (13) films did not win both Best Actress and Best Actor. They are:

  • The Guardsman (1931-32) – Lynn Fontanne / Alfred Lunt
  • My Man Godfrey (1936) – Carole Lombard / William Powell
  • Mourning Becomes Electra (1947) – Rosalind Russell / Michael Redgrave
  • A Star is Born (1954) – Judy Garland / James Mason
  • Wild is the Wind (1957) – Anna Magnani / Anthony Quinn
  • Days of Wine and Roses (1962) – Lee Remick / Jack Lemmon
  • This Sporting Life (1963) – Rachel Roberts / Richard Harris
  • The Great White Hope (1970) – Jane Alexander / James Earl Jones
  • The China Syndrome (1979) – Jane Fonda / Jack Lemmon
  • Educating Rita (1983) – Julie Walters / Michael Caine
  • Ironweed (1987) – Meryl Streep / Jack Nicholson
  • What’s Love Got to Do With It (1993) – Angela Bassett / Laurence Fishburne

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Fun Fact: The other two versions of A Star is Born (1937 and 1954) have also been nominated for Best Actress and Actor.

Do you think this year’s version will win Best Actor? Or Best Actress? Or Best Picture? Or all those three?

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6th TFO Awards: Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

The nominees for Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role are:

  • Tom Hardy – Locke
  • Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year
  • Michael Keaton – Birdman Or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
  • Ghilherme Lobo – The Way He Looks
  • Antoine Olivier Pilon – Mommy

And The Final Oscar goes to…

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Finalists (6-12): TBA

Semi-finalists (13-20): TBA

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PREVIOUSLY POSTED: Opening Remarks | Original Screenplay | Adapted Screenplay | Production Design – Contemporary | Production Design – Period | Casting | Costume Design – Period | Costume Design – Contemporary | Actor in a Supporting Role | Visual Effects | Makeup and Hairstyling | Sound Editing | Sound Mixing | Actress in a Supporting Role | Music – Original Song | Music – Adapted or Song Score | Music – Original Score | Cinematography | Film Editing | Ensemble | Animated Feature | Documentary Feature | Directing | Actress in a Leading Role

RANKED: Academy Award-Nominated Performances (2010-2015)

As you may have noticed, the blog has been in an indefinite hiatus (are you still there?). Now having some free time, I’ve decided to take things slowly and start writing a bit more. I haven’t stopped watching films, but I’ve ventured on a project that went way out of control (specifically, the Annual TFO Awards).

Meanwhile…

Nathaniel Rogers of The Film Experience have posted his personal ranking of all the 120 Academy Award-nominated performances from 2010 to 2015. For your enjoyment, here is the (very well-edited) video ranking of Ali Benzekri posted on Vimeo accompanying his post:

After reading their fascinating rankings, I was like “why not?” I have seen all 120 performances, and here is my ranking as of August 22, 2016; I’m quite sure this ranking would change any other day.

Here is my personal ranking of the nominated performances:

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BEST OF THE BEST

  1. Cate Blanchett as Jeanette “Jasmine” French in Blue JasmineWINNER
  2. Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron LadyWINNER
  3. Rosamund Pike as Amy Elliott-Dunne in Gone Girl
  4. Marion Cotillard as Sandra Bya in Two Days, One Night
  5. Cate Blanchett as Carol Aird in Carol
  6. Jean Dujardin as George Valentin in The ArtistWINNER
  7. Natalie Portman as Nina Sayers in Black SwanWINNER
  8. Joaquin Phoenix as Freddie Quell in The Master
  9. Emmanuelle Riva as Anne Laurent in Amour
  10. Michelle Williams as Cindy Heller in Blue Valentine
  11. Rooney Mara as Therese Belivet in Carol
  12. Viola Davis as Aibileen Clark in The Help
  13. Michael Keaton as Riggan Thomson in Birdman
  14. J.K. Simmons as Terence Fletcher in WhiplashWINNER
  15. Sandra Bullock as Ryan Stone in Gravity
  16. Leonardo DiCaprio as Jordan Belfort in The Wolf of Wall Street
  17. Naomi Watts as Maria Bennett in The Impossible
  18. Matthew McConaughey as Ron Woodroof in Dallas Buyers ClubWINNER
  19. Brie Larson as Joy “Ma” Newsome in RoomWINNER
  20. Jacki Weaver as Janine “Cody” Smurf in Animal Kingdom
  21. Saoirse Ronan as Eilis Lacey in Brooklyn
  22. Bradley Cooper as Patrizio “Pat Solitano, Jr. in Silver Linings Playbook
  23. Charlotte Rampling as Kate Mercer in 45 Years
  24. Philip Seymour Hoffman as Lancaster Dodd in The Master
  25. Leonardo DiCaprio as Hugh Glass in The RevenantWINNER
  26. Nicole Kidman as Becca Corbett in Rabbit Hole
  27. Chiwetel Ejiofor as Solomon Northup in 12 Years a Slave
  28. Jesse Eisenberg as Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network
  29. Javier Bardem as Uxbal in Biutiful
  30. Patricia Arquette as Olivia Evans in BoyhoodWINNER
  31. Edward Norton as Mike Shiner in Birdman
  32. Sally Hawkins as Ginger in Blue Jasmine
  33. Alicia Vikander as Gerda Wegener in The Danish GirlWINNER
  34. Meryl Streep as Violet Weston in August: Osage County
  35. Anne Hathaway as Fantine in Les MiserablesWINNER
  36. Jessica Chastain as Celia Foote in The Help
  37. Sylvester Stallone as Rocky Balboa in Creed
  38. Melissa Leo as Alice Eklund-Ward in The FighterWINNER

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ROCK SOLID

  1. Julianne Moore as Alice Daly-Howland in Still AliceWINNER
  2. Demian Bichir as Carlos Galindo in A Better Life
  3. Tom Hardy as John Fitzgerald in The Revenant
  4. Jennifer Lawrence as Joy Mangano in Joy
  5. Rooney Mara as Lisbeth Salander in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  6. Geoffrey Rush as Lionel Logue in The King’s Speech
  7. Jennifer Lawrence as Tiffany Maxwell in Silver Linings PlaybookWINNER
  8. Bradley Cooper as Richard “Richie” DiMaso in American Hustle
  9. Michael Fassbender as Edwin Epps in 12 Years a Slave
  10. Julia Roberts as Barbara Weston-Fordham in August: Osage County
  11. Jessica Chastain as Maya in Zero Dark Thirty
  12. Emma Stone as Sam Thomson in Birdman
  13. Max von Sydow as The Renter in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
  14. Reese Witherspoon as Cheryl Strayed in Wild
  15. Helen Hunt as Cheryl Cohen-Greene in The Sessions
  16. Colin Firth as King George VI in The King’s SpeechWINNER
  17. Hugh Jackman as Jean Valjean in Les Miserables
  18. Christoph Waltz as King Schultz in Django UnchainedWINNER
  19. Mark Ruffalo as Michael “Mike” Rezendes in Spotlight
  20. Michael Fassbender as Steve Jobs in Steve Jobs
  21. Jared Leto as Rayon in Dallas Buyers ClubWINNER
  22. Matt Damon as Mark Watney in The Martian
  23. Melissa McCarthy as Megan Price in Bridesmaids
  24. Amy Adams as Sydney Prosser/Edith Greensly in American Hustle
  25. John Hawkes as Teardrop in Winter’s Bone
  26. Daniel Day-Lewis as Abraham Lincoln in LincolnWINNER
  27. Annette Bening as Nicole “Nic” Allgood in The Kids are All Right
  28. Lupita Nyong’o as Patsey in 12 Years a SlaveWINNER
  29. Gary Oldman as George Smiley in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
  30. Bruce Dern as Woodrow “Woody” Grant in Nebraska
  31. Kate Winslet as Joanna Hoffman in Steve Jobs
  32. Amy Adams as Charlene Fleming in The Fighter
  33. Christian Bale as Dicky Eklund in The FighterWINNER
  34. Octavia Spencer as Minny Jackson in The HelpWINNER
  35. Ethan Hawke as Mason Evans, Jr. in Boyhood
  36. Jonah Hill as Donnie Azoff in The Wolf of Wall Street
  37. James Franco as Aaron Ralston in 127 Hours
  38. Jennifer Lawrence as Ree Dolly in Winter’s Bone
  39. Eddie Redmayne as Einar Wegener/Lili Elbe in The Danish Girl
  40. Benedict Cumberbatch as Aaron Turing in The Imitation Game
  41. Brad Pitt as Billy Beane in Moneyball
  42. Barkhad Abdi as Abduwali Muse in Captain Phillips
  43. Rachel McAdams as Sacha Pfeiffer in Spotlight
  44. Christopher Plummer as Hal Fields in BeginnersWINNER
  45. Quvenzhane Wallis as Hushpuppy in Beasts of the Southern Wild
  46. Keira Knightley as Joan Clarke in The Imitation Game
  47. Jacki Weaver as Dolores Solitano in Silver Linings Playbook

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GOOD CHOICES, THOUGH NOT MY FAVORITES

  1. Felicity Jones as Jane Wilde-Hawking in The Theory of Everything
  2. Judi Dench as Philomena Lee in Philomena
  3. Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of EverythingWINNER
  4. George Clooney as Matthew King in The Descendants
  5. Laura Dern as Bobbi Grey in Wild
  6. Jennifer Jason Leigh as Daisy Domergue in The Hateful Eight
  7. Meryl Streep as The Witch in Into the Woods
  8. Bradley Cooper as Chris Kyle in American Sniper
  9. June Squibb as Kate Grant in Nebraska
  10. Steve Carell as John Du Pont in Foxcatcher
  11. Glenn Close as Albert Nobbs in Albert Nobbs
  12. Jennifer Lawrence as Rosalyn Rosenfeld in American Hustle
  13. Kenneth Branagh as Laurence Olivier in My Week with Marilyn
  14. Sally Field as Mary Todd Lincoln in Lincoln
  15. Hailee Steinfeld as Mattie Ross in True Grit
  16. Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe in My Week with Marilyn
  17. Berenice Bejo as Peppy Miller in The Artist
  18. Denzel Washington as William “Whip” Whitaker, Sr. in Flight
  19. Robert De Niro as Patrizio “Pat” Solitano, Sr. in Silver Linings Playbook
  20. Jeff Bridges as Rooster Cogburn in True Grit
  21. Mark Ruffalo as David Schultz in Foxcatcher
  22. Helena Bonham Carter as Queen Elizabeth in The King’s Speech
  23. Nick Nolte as Paddy Conlon in Warrior
  24. Christian Bale as Irving Rosenfeld in American Hustle

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I’M OKAY WITH THEM… I GUESS?

  1. Amy Adams as Margaret “Peggy” Dodd in The Master
  2. Tommy Lee Jones as Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln
  3. Christian Bale as Michael Burry in The Big Short
  4. Jeremy Renner as James “Jem” Coughlin in The Town
  5. Mary Rylance as Rudolf Abel in Bridge of SpiesWINNER
  6. Janet McTeer as Hubert Page in Albert Nobbs
  7. Mark Ruffalo as Paul Hatfield in The Kids are All Right

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NOT BAD, BUT UNNECESSARILY NOMINATED

  1. Robert Duvall as Joseph Palmer in The Judge
  2. Jonah Hill as Peter Brand in Moneyball
  3. Bryan Cranston as Dalton Trumbo in Trumbo
  4. Alan Arkin as Lester Siegel in Argo

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NOTES ON THE RANKING:

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Highest-ranked nominee: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine (# 1)
Highest-ranked  winner: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine (# 1)
Lowest-ranked nominee: Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn (# 101)
Lowest-ranked winner: Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook (# 45)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Highest-ranked nominee: Jean Dujardin in The Artist (# 6)
Highest-ranked winner: Jean Dujardin in The Artist (# 6)
Lowest-ranked nominee: Bryan Cranston in Trumbo (# 119)
Lowest-ranked winner: Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything (# 88)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Highest-ranked nominee: Rooney Mara in Carol (# 11)
Highest-ranked winner: Patricia Arquette in Boyhood (# 30)
Lowest-ranked nominee: Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs (# 115)
Lowest-ranked winner: Octavia Spencer in The Help (# 73)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Highest-ranked nominee: J.K. Simmons in Whiplash (# 14)
Highest-ranked winner: J.K. Simmons in Whiplash (# 14)
Lowest-ranked nominee: Alan Arkin in Argo (# 120)
Lowest-ranked winner: Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies (# 114)

Strongest Year in…
Best Actress: 2015 (# 5, # 19, # 21, # 23, # 43)
Best Actor: 2011 (# 6, # 41, # 68, # 80, # 89)
Best Supporting Actress: 2015 (# 11, # 33, # 70, # 82, # 91)
Best Supporting Actor: 2013 (# 47, # 48, # 60, # 75, # 81)

Weakest Year in…
Best Actress: 2011 (# 2, # 12, # 44, # 96, # 101)
Best Actor: 2015 (# 25, # 48, # 61, # 78, # 119)
Best Supporting Actress: 2011 (# 36, # 62, # 73, # 102, # 115)
Best Supporting Actor: 2012 (# 24, # 57 # 104, # 111, # 120)

Ranking the categories be like:
Best Actress: 2015 > 2010 > 2012 > 2014 > 2013 > 2011
Best Actor: 2011  > 2014 > 2012 > 2010 > 2013 > 2015
Best Supporting Actress: 2015 > 2014 > 2013 > 2010 > 2012 > 2011
Best Supporting Actor: 2013 > 2015 > 2010 > 2014 > 2011 > 2012

Over-all ranking be like:
Actress > Supporting Actress > Actor > Supporting Actor

Oscar Predictions (December 20, 2013)

I intend to write about more regarding the status of the race per category, but since I do not have the luxury of time, I would just edit this post to insert my thoughts per category. Meanwhile, here are my predictions:

Those in BOLD are the predicted nominees.

Color Legend:
GREEN – Locked for Nomination
RED – In the Mix, Definitely in Contention
BLUE – Longshot

Picture

Director

Actor-Actress

SuppActor-SuppActress

Screenplay

Visuals1

Visuals3

Aurals1Aurals2Visuals2AF-DFFLF