89th Academy Awards: The Aftermath

Photo courtesy of Variety.

Photo courtesy of Variety.

This day has been quite an emotional roller-coaster for me (I downloaded the awards show last night as I isolated myself from all news and social media).

After missing a lot of categories in the first half, I was convinced that La La Land was probably not winning Best Picture… until it started winning big time, getting six wins including major awards for Best Director (Damien Chazelle) and Best Actress (Emma Stone). I know there was the big possibility of a Moonlight win, but then La La Land was announced so I was extremely happy…

Not for long. Moonlight was the actual winner for Best Picture after an unfortunate backstage blunder. La La Land is my favorite to win, but that doesn’t diminish Moonlight’s over-all accomplishment; it’s unlike any other winner, thematically, artistically, emotionally. It’s an important film that doesn’t just serve a social importance. It is a cinematic milestone.

With that mishap, I will treasure both films as 2016’s masterpieces of cinema, alongside others like Arrival and Hell or High Water, among others.

In this year when so many people have declared the death of cinema, I seriously doubt that. The nominees this year have given an encompassing set of human experiences that are the main reason why film is so important.

I actually was kinda happy that Moonlight won since it will save La La Land the reputation of the one that beat the socially significant Moonlight, thus earning it more backlash.

I’d like both films to stand alongside one another as the proof of 2016’s cinematic zenith, together with the several films, nominated or otherwise.

I still have a lot to watch from this year (as I am so near the end of my quest for 2014, mind you), but this slate of Oscar nominees has made me proud to be someone who wants to make films.

And both films make want to make a film soon. We’ll see.

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89th Academy Awards – FINAL PREDICTIONS

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This time of the year has come. In this post, rather than just doing a will win/could win (as every nominee has a chance to win, at least theoretically), I’d rank the nominees per category according to the probability of winning. So here it goes.

Nominee in bold is the predicted winner.

NOTE: No personal preference here would not come into play here.

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oscars2017-bestpicture-rearrange
Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight (if it resonates more; who hates it?)
3. Hidden Figures (if the late love is real)
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. Arrival
6. Hacksaw Ridge
7. Lion
8. Hell or High Water
9. Fences

Best Director
1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
3. Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
4. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
5. Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actor (tight race!)
1. Denzel Washington – Fences (if SAG stat holds up)
2. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (equal chances with # 1)
3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land (shocker, in a sweep)
4. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
5. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

Best Actress
1. Emma Stone – La La Land (SAG winner, in Best Picture frontrunner)
2. Isabelle Huppert – Elle (because she campaigned hard + veteran status)
3. Natalie Portman – Jackie (if the performance sticks even if Jackie didn’t)
4. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ruth Negga – Loving

Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
2. Dev Patel – Lion (close second; lead advantage)
3. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
4. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
5. Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Best Supporting Actress
1. Viola Davis – Fences (close to a lock)
2. Naomie Harris – Moonlight (if anyone will shock, it’s her)
3. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
4. Nicole Kidman – Lion
5. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Best Original Screenplay
1. La La Land (in a sweep)
2. Manchester by the Sea (if they want to reward MBTS)
3. Hell or High Water (if they really loved it)
4. The Lobster (because why not)
5. 20th Century Women

Best Adapted Screenplay (toss up)
1. Moonlight (if they want to reward Moonlight)
2. Arrival (don’t underestimate this)
3. Hidden Figures (if the late love is real)
4. Lion (if they loved it)
5. Fences (because it’s August Wilson)

Best Animated Feature
1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. My Life as a Zucchini
5. The Red Turtle

Best Documentary Feature
1. 13th (I’m calling this one)
2. O.J.: Made in America (will its length be a factor to win/lose?)
3. Fire at Sea
4. I Am Not Your Negro
5. Life, Animated

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Iran – The Salesman (because the timing is right)
2. Germany – Toni Erdmann (critics’ favorite)
3. Sweden – A Man Called Ove
4. Denmark – Land of Mine
5. Australia – Tanna

Best Cinematography
1. La La Land (because wow, those long takes! colors!)
2. Lion
3. Arrival
4. Moonlight
5. Silence

Best Film Editing
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Moonlight
5. Hell or High Water

Best Sound Mixing
1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Best Sound Editing
1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. La La Land (in a sweep)
3. Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Sully

Best Original Score
1. La La Land (what else? clear favorite)
2. Lion (or maybe this one? emotional)
3. Moonlight (if the film is that strong on the voters)
4. Passengers
5. Jackie

Best Visual Effects
1. The Jungle Book
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (it has come THIS far)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Doctor Strange
5. Deepwater Horizon

Best Makeup and Hairstyling (toss-up)
1. Star Trek Beyond
2. A Man Called Ove
3. Suicide Squad (because why not)

Best Production Design
1. La La Land (in a sweep)
2. Arrival
3. Hail, Caesar!
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. Passengers

Best Costume Design
1. La La Land (in a sweep; fearless forecast)
2. Jackie (logical choice, but where’s the love for Jackie?)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Allied

Best Original Song
1. “City of Stars” – La La Land
2. “How Far I’ll Go” – Moana (it’s Lin Manuel-Miranda)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – La La Land
4. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
5. “The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story

Best Live-Action Short Film
1. Ennemis Intérieurs
2. Silent Nights
3. Sing
4. La Femme et le TGV
5. Timecode

Best Animated Short Film
1. Piper
2. Pearl
3. Blind Vaysha
4. Borrowed Time
5. Pear Cider and Cigarettes

Best Documentary Short Subject
1. The White Helmets
2. Joe’s Violin
3. Extremis
4. Watani: My Homeland
5. 4.1 Miles