91st Academy Awards – FINAL PREDICTIONS

These are my final predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. With a crazy year like this (and I mean it, crazy), instead of just picking a winner and a spoiler, I will rank all the nominees per category.

Anything could happen, anyone could win (well, maybe except Original Song, but more on that later). I’ll work my way from the shorts, tech categories, and then to the major categories.


Four films about children in terrible situations. Would that benefit Marguerite, being the sole nominee about the elderly, or will Skin prevail given its timely subject?

SPOILER: Marguerite
3. Detainment
4. Fauve
5. Mother


Like in the case of Live Action Short Film category, four of these films are harrowing films, from disturbing (A Night in the Garden, Black Sheep) to downright heartbreaking (Lifeboat, End Game). With that, I think Period. End of Sentence. will stick out.

WINNER: Period. End of Sentence.
SPOILER: Lifeboat
3. End Game
4. Black Sheep
5. A Night in the Garden


What else to say? Bao seems to have the most exposure from these nominees. Being a Pixar film helps in this category.

SPOILER: Late Afternoon
3. Weekends
4. One Small Step
5. Animal Behavior


This might be Vice’s only solid chance for a win.

SPOILER: Mary Queen of Scots
3. Border


Assumed frontrunner Black Panther wasn’t even nominated here. Would the love transfer to Avengers: Infinity War or would First Man prevail in a trend that hinges towards Best Picture nominees as well as contenders that didn’t make it to a nomination?

WINNER: First Man
SPOILER: Avengers: Infinity War
3. Ready Player One
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
5. Christopher Robin


I believe Ruth Carter is bound to make history as the first African-American winner in this category for Black Panther. Otherwise, perennial favorite Sandy Powell might just take another Oscar for The Favourite.

WINNER: Black Panther
SPOILER: The Favourite
3. Mary Queen of Scots
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs


I’m changing my predictions at the last minute and say that The Favourite trumps over Black Panther.

WINNER: The Favourite
SPOILER: Black Panther
3. First Man
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Roma


I think this is the only chance where they could reward A Star Born, and the Academy does not have much reason to miss it. Finally, Lady Gaga would be an Oscar winner already.

WINNER: “Shallow” – A Star is Born
SPOILER: “I’ll Fight” – RBG
3. “All the Stars” – Black Panther
4. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” – Mary Poppins Returns
5. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs


Total tossup. When the clear frontrunner and favorite to win is not even nominated (that snub for First Man still hurts; Justin Hurwitz is a genius), and the selected films all have things going for and against them, this is where surprise usually happens. Only once has the winner come from a non-Best Picture nominee since the preferential ballot (and that was the music legend Ennio Morricone). With that, who to pick? I’ll go with the score that has passionate supporters, but I’m still not sure.

WINNER: If Beale Street Could Talk
SPOILER: BlacKkKlansman
3. Black Panther
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Isle of Dogs


Another place to honor Black Panther. Otherwise, it’s A Quiet Place or First Man. Not Bohemian Rhapsody, I hope.

WINNER: Black Panther
SPOILER: A Quiet Place
3. First Man
4. Bohemian Rhapsody – if this wins (sigh) it could win Best Picture too.
5. Roma


Oh, gosh. Win # 1 for Bohemian Rhapsody. Or maybe Black Panther.

WINNER: Bohemian Rhapsody
SPOILER: Black Panther
3. A Star is Born
4. First Man
5. Roma – if this wins, it also wins Best Picture.


Win # 2 for Bohemian Rhapsody. It pains me. Vice has a chance given this category tends to go with Most Editing, but yeah, let’s call it a win for Bo Rhap.

WINNER: Bohemian Rhapsody
3. The Favourite
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Green Book – if this wins, it also wins Best Picture.


ASC aside, this is Roma’s to lose.

SPOILER: Cold War – if this wins, Roma won’t win Best Picture.
3. The Favourite
4. A Star is Born
5. Never Look Away


Roma should win this in a heartbeat, given the over-all support and exposure it has within Academy members, as proven by its ten nominations. But yeah, Cold War is a legitimate threat.

WINNER: Mexico – Roma
SPOILER: Poland – Cold War – if this wins, Roma’s chances for Best Picture win is narrow.
3. Japan – Shoplifters – remember when Japan surprised a win in 2008?
4. Lebanon – Capernaum
5. Germany – Never Look Away


It’s a battle between the big-screen experience (Free Solo) versus the timely subject (RBG).

WINNER: Free Solo
3. Minding the Gap
4. Hale County This Morning, This Evening
5. Of Fathers and Sons


It’s good that Pixar is getting Animated Short because Spider-Verse is taking this one. The nomination was the hurdle; it would be a true shocker if it doesn’t win.

WINNER: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
SPOILER: Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Mirai
5. Ralph Breaks the Internet


Congratulations to Spike Lee for his first ever competitive Oscar.

WINNER: BlacKkKlansman – if this doesn’t win, then the film stands no chance winning Best Picture.
SPOILER: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. A Star is Born
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs


Common sense would most probably dictate that Green Book’s well-beloved status will push it for a Screenplay win, but with a screenplay so showy and undeniable as The Favourite, I don’t know. Aside from the questionable Argo win (in Adapted, nonetheless), Screenplay categories don’t usually default with the assumed frontrunners unless those are also writing heavyweights.

WINNER: The Favourite
SPOILER: Green Book – if this wins, then it’s on its way for a Best Picture win.
3. Vice
4. Roma – if this happens, then it also takes Best Picture.
5. First Reformed


The only acting category that was swept by the frontrunner.

WINNER: Mahershala Ali – Green Book
SPOILER: Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
LONGSHOT POSSIBILITY: Sam Elliott – A Star is Born
4. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
5. Sam Rockwell – Vice


If Supporting Actor is crystal clear, this one is still up for grabs. Two lead performances, two de facto frontrunners and two potential surprise winners.

WINNER: Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
SPOILER: Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
LONGSHOT POSSIBILITY: Marina de Tavira – Roma
5. Emma Stone – The Favourite


Oh, dear. Win # 3 (or 4) for Bohemian Rhapsody.

WINNER: Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
SPOILER # 1: Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
SPOILER # 2: Christian Bale – Vice
4. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
5. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate


After seven losses, Glenn Close finally wins an Oscar and she deserves it based on the performance alone. Piss off, haters.

WINNER: Glenn Close – The Wife
SPOILER: Olivia Colman – The Favourite
LONGSHOT POSSIBILITY: Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
I MEAN…. IT COULD HAPPEN: Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
5. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?


If anyone aside from Cuaron wins this, Roma’s not winning Best Picture.

WINNER: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
SPOILER: Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
3. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
4. Adam McKay – Vice
5. Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War


You can make a case for the top seven nominees (sadly). All of them benefit from the preferential ballot. Therefore, the rankings in every Oscar ballot matter. We’re here now, so let’s take a dive.

2. Green Book
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Black Panther
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
6. A Star is Born
7. The Favourite
8. Vice

You know what? I also question that ranking. Who knows who will win?



  • Black Panther
  • BlacKkKlansman
  • Green Book
  • Roma
  • A Star is Born
    if 6, add: The Favourite
    if 7, add: Vice
    if 8, add: Bohemian Rhapsody
    if 9, add: If Beale Street Could Talk
    —– I’m predicting 9 —–
    if 10, add: First Man

Alt: Mary Poppins Returns, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, Leave No Trace, Eighth Grade, First Reformed, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Cold War

I just need to admit that Bohemian Rhapsody is happening. First Man is hanging in there because of the technical support for the film. Beale Street is in danger.


  • Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
  • Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
  • Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
  • Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born

alt: Ryan Coogler – Black Panther, Peter Farrelly – Green Book, Adam McKay – Vice, Damien Chazelle – First Man, Debra Granik – Leave No Trace, Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War


  • Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
  • Glenn Close – The Wife
  • Olivia Colman – The Favourite
  • Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
  • Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt: Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Viola Davis (Widows), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Rosamund Pike (A Private War), Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade), Regina Hall (Support the Girls), Julia Roberts (Ben is Back), Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots), Charlize Theron (Tully), Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher), Kathryn Hahn (Private Life), Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex), Keira Knightley (Colette), Joanna Kulig (Cold War), Kiki Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk), Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace), Carey Mulligan (Wildlife), Amandla Stenberg (The Hate U Give)

Definitely the most stacked of all the acting categories. Aparicio’s my wildcard pick for a surprise. McCarthy would’ve been my wildcard snub pick, but who to put in? Anything could happen, and I love it. Yes to more female lead roles in films!


  • Christian Bale – Vice
  • Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
  • Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
  • John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman

alt: Ethan Hawke – First Reformed, Ryan Gosling – First Man, Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate, Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased


  • Amy Adams – Vice
  • Claire Foy – First Man
  • Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Emma Stone – The Favourite
  • Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

alt: Marina de Tavira – Roma, Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place, Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians, Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots, Thomasin McKenzie – Leave No Trace, Linda Cardellini – Green Book


  • Mahershala Ali – Green Book
  • Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
  • Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
  • Sam Elliott – A Star is Born
  • Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

alt: Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther, Sam Rockwell – Vice, Nicholas Hoult – The Favourite


  • The Favourite
  • First Reformed
  • Green Book
  • Roma
  • Vice

alt: Eighth Grade, Sorry to Bother You, A Quiet Place, Private Life


  • BlacKkKlansman
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • The Death of Stalin
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • A Star is Born

alt: Black Panther, First Man, Crazy Rich Asians, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Leave No Trace, The Hate U Give


  • Incredibles 2
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Mirai
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet
  • Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse

alt: Early Man, Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, The Grinch, Ruben Brandt Collector


  • Free Solo
  • RBG
  • Shirkers
  • Three Identical Strangers
  • Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

alt: Minding the Gap, Crime + Punishment, Hale County This Morning This Evening, The Silence of Others, On Her Shoulders, The Distant Barking of Dogs, Of Fathers and Sons, Charm City, Communion, Dark Money


  • South Korea – Burning
  • Lebanon – Capernaum
  • Poland – Cold War
  • Mexico – Roma
  • Shoplifters – Japan

alt: Denmark – The Guilty, Germany – Never Look Away, Colombia – Birds of Passage, Kazakhsatan – Ayka


  • Cold War
  • The Favourite
  • First Man
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Roma

alt: A Star is Born, Black Panther, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Annihilation, Mary Poppins Returns


  • Black Panther
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • First Man
  • Roma
  • A Star is Born

alt: The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice, BlackKkKlansman, Widows, Mission: Impossible – Fallout


  • Black Panther
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • First Man
  • A Quiet Place
  • Roma

alt: A Star is Born, Mary Poppins Returns, Annihilation, Ready Player One


  • Black Panther
  • First Man
  • Mission: Impossible – Fallout
  • A Quiet Place
  • Roma

alt: Annihilation, Bohemian Rhapsody, Ready Player One, Avengers: Infinity War


  • Black Panther
  • First Man
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Mary Poppins Returns

alt: BlacKkKlansman, A Quiet Place, Annihilation, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Ready Player One, The Death of Stalin


  • “All the Stars” – Black Panther
  • “I’ll Fight” – RBG
  • “Revelation” – Boy Erased
  • “Shallow” – A Star is Born
  • “Trip A Little Light Fantastic” – Mary Poppins Returns

alt: “The Place Where Lost Things Go” – Mary Poppins Returns, “Girl at the Movies”- Dumplin’, “We Won’t Move” – The Hate U Give, “Keep Reachin’” – Quincy, “Suspirium” – Suspiria


  • Black Panther
  • The Favourite
  • First Man
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Roma

alt: If Beale Street Could Talk, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, A Quiet Place, Crazy Rich Asians


  • Black Panther
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • The Favourite
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Mary Queen of Scots

alt: Crazy Rich Asians, A Star is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman


  • Avengers: Infinity War
  • Black Panther
  • First Man
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Ready Player One

alt: Welcome to Marwen, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Christopher Robin


  • Black Panther
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Border

alt: Vice, Suspiria, Stan & Ollie, Mary Queen of Scots


  • Age of Sail
  • Bao
  • Bilby
  • Late Afternoon
  • Weekends


  • Black Sheep
  • My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes
  • A Night at the Garden
  • Period. End of Sentence.
  • Zion


  • Caroline
  • Detainment
  • Marguerite
  • Skin
  • Wale

Could A Star is Born Win Picture, Actress, and Actor at the Oscars?

After the strong critical reception and the foreseeable box-office prominence, A Star is Born is poised to be a formidable contender in Best Picture, Actress, and Actor.

Bradley Cooper gets career-best reviews while Lady Gaga has the (no pun intended) ‘a star is born’ narrative that does well especially in Best Actress. The film itself, also produced, has been positively received since it premiered in Venice. This is probably even going to be the frontrunner in the Golden Globes where musicals have a separate category.

In fact, some pundits are even predicting that the film will win all three awards at the Academy Awards. But historically speaking, could the film pull off this feat? After some tinkering with the Academy Awards’ history, here are the stats that might go for or against the chances of A Star is Born winning these awards.

Here are the stats, and this is gonna be long. Only for Oscar nerds and the curious. Winners are in bold.

There are 80 Best Actress/Actor nominees coming from the same film.

From this, 62 are from Best Picture nominees.

Out of the 62, only three won Best Picture, Actress, and Actor. They are:

  • It Happened One Night (1934) – Claudette ColbertClark Gable
  • One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975) – Louise Fletcher / Jack Nicholson
  • The Silence of the Lambs (1991) – Jodie Foster / Anthony Hopkins

Take note: all of these films were the also the only Big Five winners (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and Screenplay).

Four films won Best Actress and Actor but not Best Picture. They are:

  • Network (1976) – Faye Dunaway / Peter Finch + William Holden
  • Coming Home (1978) – Jane Fonda / Jon Voight
  • On Golden Pond (1981) – Katharine Hepburn / Henry Fonda
  • As Good as It Gets (1997) – Helen Hunt / Jack Nicholson

Five films won Best Picture and Actress but not Best Actor. They are:

  • Gone with the Wind (1939) – Vivian Leigh / Clark Gable
  • Mrs. Miniver (1942) – Greer Garson / Walter Pidgeon
  • Annie Hall (1977) – Diane Keaton / Woody Allen
  • Driving Miss Daisy (1989) – Jessica Tandy / Morgan Freeman
  • Million Dollar Baby (2004) – Hilary Swank / Clint Eastwood

Only one film won Best Picture and Actor but not Best Actress. It is:

  • American Beauty (1999) – Annette Bening / Kevin Spacey

Eleven (11) films won Best Actress but not Best Picture and Actor. They are:

  • Gaslight (1944) – Ingrid Bergman / Charles Boyer
  • Johnny Belinda (1948) – Jane Wyman / Lew Ayres
  • A Streetcar Named Desire (1951) – Vivian Leigh / Marlon Brando
  • The Country Girl (1954) – Grace Kelly / Bing Crosby
  • Room at the Top (1959) – Simone Signoret / Laurence Harvey
  • Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (1966) – Elizabeth Taylor / Richard Burton
  • Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner (1967) – Katharine Hepburn / Spencer Tracy
  • The Lion in Winter (1968) – Katharine Hepburn / Peter O’ Toole
  • Children of a Lesser God (1986) – Marlee Matlin / William Hurt
  • Silver Linings Playbook (2012) – Jennifer Lawrence / Bradley Cooper
  • La La Land (2016) – Emma Stone / Ryan Gosling

Six films won Best Actor but not Best Picture and Actress. They are:

  • Goodbye, Mr. Chips (1939) – Greer Garson / Robert Donat
  • The Philadelphia Story (1940) – Katharine Hepburn / James Stewart
  • The King and I (1956) – Deborah Kerr / Yul Brynner
  • Separate Table (1958) – Deborah Kerr / David Niven
  • The Goodbye Girl (1977) – Marsha Mason / Richard Dreyfuss
  • The Theory of Everything (2014) – Felicity Jones / Eddie Redmayne

Seven films won Best Picture but not Best Actress and Actor. They are:

  • Cimarron (1930-31) – Irene Dunne / Richard Dix
  • Rebecca (1940) – Joan Fontaine / Laurence Olivier
  • Gentleman’s Agreement (1947) – Dorothy McGuire / Gregory Peck
  • From Here to Eternity (1953) – Deborah Kerr / Montgomery Clift + Burt Lancaster
  • The Apartment (1960) – Shirley Maclaine / Jack Lemmon
  • Rocky (1976) – Talia Shire / Sylvester Stallone
  • The English Patient (1996) – Kristin Scott Thomas / Ralph Fiennes

Twenty-five (25) films did not win Best Picture, Actress, and Actor. They are:

  • A Star is Born (1937) – Janet Gaynor / Fredric March
  • Pygmalion (1938) – Wendy Hiller / Leslie Howard
  • The Pride of the Yankees (1942) – Teresa Wright / Gary Cooper
  • Madame Curie (1943) – Greer Garson / Walter Pidgeon
  • For Whom the Bell Tolls (1943) – Ingrid Bergman / Gary Cooper
  • The Bells of St. Mary’s (1945) – Ingrid Bergman / Bing Crosby
  • The Yearling (1946) – Jane Wyman / Gregory Peck
  • Sunset Boulevard (1950) – Gloria Swanson / William Holden
  • A Place in the Sun (1951) – Shelley Winters / Montgomery Clift
  • Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (1958) – Elizabeth Taylor / Paul Newman
  • The Hustler (1961) – Piper Laurie / Paul Newman
  • Ship of Fools (1965) – Simone Signoret / Oskar Werner
  • Bonnie and Clyde (1967) – Faye Dunaway / Warren Beatty
  • The Graduate (1967) – Anne Bancroft / Dustin Hoffman
  • Anne of the Thousand Days (1969) – Genevieve Bujold / Richard Burton
  • Love Story (1970) – Ali McGraw / Ryan O’ Neal
  • Lenny (1974) – Valerie Perrine / Dustin Hoffman
  • Chinatown (1974) – Faye Dunaway / Jack Nicholson
  • Atlantic City (1981) – Susan Sarandon / Burt Lancaster
  • Reds (1981) – Diane Keaton / Warren Beatty
  • Missing (1982) – Sissy Spacek / Jack Lemmon
  • Broadcast News (1987) – Holly Hunter / William Hurt
  • The Remains of the Day (1993) – Emma Thompson / Anthony Hopkins
  • In the Bedroom (2001) – Sissy Spacek / Tom Wilkinson
  • American Hustle (2013) – Amy Adams / Christian Bale

Eighteen (18) films have Best Actress and Actor nominations but not Best Picture.

None of the 18 have won both Best Actress and Best Actor.

Out of the 18, three films won Best Actress but not Best Actor. They are:

  • Hud (1963) – Patricia Neal / Paul Newman
  • Dead Man Walking (1995) – Susan Sarandon / Sean Penn
  • Walk the Line (2005) – Reese Witherspoon / Joaquin Phoenix

Three films won Best Actor but not Best Actress. They are:

  • A Free Soul (1930-31) – Norma Shearer / Lionel Barrymore
  • The African Queen (1951) – Katharine Hepburn / Humphrey Bogart
  • Leaving Las Vegas (1995) – Elisabeth Shue / Nicholas Cage

Thirteen (13) films did not win both Best Actress and Best Actor. They are:

  • The Guardsman (1931-32) – Lynn Fontanne / Alfred Lunt
  • My Man Godfrey (1936) – Carole Lombard / William Powell
  • Mourning Becomes Electra (1947) – Rosalind Russell / Michael Redgrave
  • A Star is Born (1954) – Judy Garland / James Mason
  • Wild is the Wind (1957) – Anna Magnani / Anthony Quinn
  • Days of Wine and Roses (1962) – Lee Remick / Jack Lemmon
  • This Sporting Life (1963) – Rachel Roberts / Richard Harris
  • The Great White Hope (1970) – Jane Alexander / James Earl Jones
  • The China Syndrome (1979) – Jane Fonda / Jack Lemmon
  • Educating Rita (1983) – Julie Walters / Michael Caine
  • Ironweed (1987) – Meryl Streep / Jack Nicholson
  • What’s Love Got to Do With It (1993) – Angela Bassett / Laurence Fishburne


Fun Fact: The other two versions of A Star is Born (1937 and 1954) have also been nominated for Best Actress and Actor.

Do you think this year’s version will win Best Actor? Or Best Actress? Or Best Picture? Or all those three?

Academy Award for Best Actress: Class of 2018

If there’s any reason to be excited about the 91st Academy Awards, it is definitely not the cringe-inducing introduction of the “Best Popular Film” nor the blatant disrespect to film craftspeople by relegating the less popular categories to pre-edited clips during commercial breaks. Seriously, shame on ABC for putting these profit-driven pressures to the Oscars and shame on the Academy for giving in and not becoming steadfast in its supposed commitment to film awareness and appreciation.

As a queer film school alumnus, these are the categories that always interest me:

  • Best Picture, for becoming a reflection of the strength of the field of contenders vis-à-vis the over-all pulse of the Academy’s current membership;
  • Best Directing, for rewarding the visionaries of cinema;
  • Best Original/Adapted Screenplay, for shedding a light on this writer’s craft;
  • Best Foreign Language Film, for celebrating the diversity of cinematic voices around Europe the world (they’re making strides these past years);
  • Best Documentary Feature, for putting a spotlight on these courageous artists who does an almost-journalistic method of filmmaking.

And of course, Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role.

Yes, Supporting Actress also gets some of my love, but Leading Actress category most likely reflects the state of the mostly male-driven film industry in its efforts to represent stories of different kinds of women. We should be past the time when we only see women as whores, wives, or witches. History has suppressed stories about women, and now more than ever, it is very urgent to tell female-driven stories in all platforms.

That is perhaps the reason why I was drawn to television. Remember when I started my own project here called Beyond the Ballot: Women in Film and the Academy Awards?

It was supposed to be my exploration of the female lead roles in the past years, but then I gradually leaned towards witnessing complex roles for women in television. Needless to say, I am emotionally invested in the Best Actress Race at the Emmys.

Going back, I have read some comments saying that this year for female leads in film is thin compared to last year. Truth be told, there has been an embarrassment of riches for female leads in contention since 2015 (and I would even dare say 2014).

After watching my first film of 2018: Björn Runge’s The Wife starring six-time Academy Award nominee Glenn Close, I knew I had to go back to my first love which is Best Actress in film.

Sony Pictures Classics did the right thing of holding back the film from its 2017 premiere at TIFF to its release this weekend (the film was screened a week earlier in the Philippines, giving me the chance to see it). And it must be said: Glenn Close is glorious in this film. Though the film struggles to catch up with her greatness, she owns this film, and it would be a satisfying win given the performance and the overdue narrative. She is rightfully the early frontrunner of this race.

However, the race is far from over. There are a lot of possible contenders, from expected Best Picture players to potential longshots, this year should prove to be an exciting year for Best Actress. Therefore, precursor awards should not feel lazy preordaining a selected few just because they feel the need to predict the ultimate winner at the Academy Awards.

As of August 17, 2018, here are my predictions for Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:

PREDICTED NOMINEES (a combination of educated and wildcard guesses):

01. Glenn Close – The Wife
02. Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
03. Viola Davis – Widows
04. Kiki Layne – If Beale Street Could Talk
05. Toni Collette – Hereditary

SOLID CONTENDERS (if all of these fare well, look at here for the alternate choices):

06. Saoirse Ronan – Mary, Queen of Scots
07. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
08. Nicole Kidman – Destroyer
09. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
10. Carey Mulligan – Wildlife
11. Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns
12. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex
13. Emma Thompson – The Children Act
14. Judi Dench – Red Joan
15. Keira Knightley – Colette

IN THE MIX (definitely in the hunt for the nomination):

16. Julianne Moore – Gloria Bell
17. Margot Robbie – Mary, Queen of Scors
18. Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Kindergarten Teacher
19. Taraji P. Henson – The Best of Enemies
20. Sandra Bullock – Bird Box
21. Michelle Pfeiffer – Where is Kyra?
22. Rachel Weisz – Disobedience
23. Emma Stone – The Favourite
24. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place
25. Renee Zellweger – Judy

POTENTIAL LONGSHOTS (never count them out; I once had Natalie Portman in Jackie as a longshot, and look where she ended up):

26. Kristen Stewart – JT Leroy
27. Mary Elizabeth Winstead – All About Nina
28. Keira Knightley – The Aftermath
29. Charlize Theron – Tully
30. Thomasin McKenzie – Leave No Trace

31. Julianne Moore – Bel Canto
32. Hilary Swank – What They Had
33. Claire Foy – The Girl in the Spider’s Web
34. Penelope Cruz – Everybody Knows
35. Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade
36. Rachel McAdams – Disobedience
37. Julia Roberts – Ben is Back
38. Rosamund Pike – A Private War
39. Dakota Johnson – Suspiria
40. Constance Wu – Crazy Rich Asians

41. Elizabeth Debicki – Vita and Virginia
42. Kathryn Hahn – Private Life
43. Chloe Grace Moretz – The Miseducation of Cameron Post
44. Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Fast Color
45. Amanda Seyfried – First Reformed
46. Jessica Chastain – Woman Walks Ahead
47. Andie McDowell – Love After Love
48. Chloe Sevigny – Lizzie
49. Anne Hathaway – Serenity
50. Natalie Portman – Annihilation / Rooney Mara – Mary Magdalene

Did I miss any other possible Best Actress contenders?