FINAL PREDICTIONS: 92nd Academy Awards – Nominations

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This is another tough year to predict. Not because there is a bad film that I so want to avoid predicting like last year’s Bohemian Rhapsody, but because all of the major contenders are very good to great films. I have my own personal favorites; they don’t factor in here, but precursors + on-ground buzz + gut feeling. Whatever, it’s always fun to play this game. Have done this since 2009, the first year of the expanded ballot.

BEST PICTURE

  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • 1917
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Parasite
    if 6, add Marriage Story
    if 7, add Joker
    if 8, add Little Women
    if 9, add The Two Popes
    ———
    if 10, add Ford v Ferrari
    Alt: The Farewell, Bombshell, Knives Out

I feel safe with the top eight. Logic dictates Ford v Ferrari because of technical support, but I have a gut feeling that The Two Popes will have a very passionate fanbase that would be enough to push it to the finish line.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

  • Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
  • Greta Gerwig – Little Women
  • San Mendes – 1917
  • Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Bong Joon-ho – Parasite
    Alt: Taika Waititi, Pedro Almodóvar, Noah Baumbach

Bong and Mendes are locks. Tarantino and Scorsese feel safe, but wouldn’t surprise me if they are snubbed. Fifth slot is tough; I’m going with Gerwig making a historic second nomination for a female director.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
  • Lupita Nyong’o – Us
  • Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
  • Charlize Theron – Bombshell
  • Renée Zellweger – Judy
    Alt: Awkwafina, Cynthia Erivo, Alfre Woodard

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
  • Adam Driver – Marriage Story
  • Taron Egerton – Rocketman
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
  • Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
    Alt: Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert DeNiro, Eddie Murphy

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Laura Dern – Marriage Story
  • Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
  • Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
  • Florence Pugh – Little Women
  • Margot Robbie – Bombshell
    Alt: Zhao Shuzhen, Cho Yeo-jeong, Kathy Bates

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
  • Al Pacino – The Irishman
  • Joe Pesci – The Irishman
  • Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Song Kang-ho – Parasite
    Alt: Tom Hanks, Alan Alda, Taika Waititi

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • The Farewell
  • Knives Out
  • Marriage Story
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Parasite
    Alt: Booksmart, 1917, Uncut Gems, Pain and Glory

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Little Women
  • The Two Popes
    Alt: Joker, Hustlers

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

  • Frozen II
  • How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
  • I Lost My Body
  • Missing Link
  • Toy Story 4
    Alt: Klaus, Abominable

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • American Factory
  • The Cave
  • For Sama
  • Honeyland
  • One Child Nation
    Alt: The Edge of Democracy, Knock Down the House, Apollo 11

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

  • Senegal – Atlantics
  • Russia – Beanpole
  • France – Les Misérables
  • Spain – Pain and Glory
  • South Korea – Parasite
    Alt: Corpus Christi, The Painted Bird, Honeyland

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Joker
  • The Lighthouse
  • 1917
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Portrait of a Lady on Fire
    Alt: The Irishman, Parasite, Little Women

BEST FILM EDITING

  • Ford v Ferrari
  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Parasite
    Alt: Joker, Marriage Story

BEST SOUND MIXING

  • The Irishman
  • Joker
  • 1917
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    Alt: Ford v Ferrari, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Ad Astra, Midway

BEST SOUND EDITING

  • Ford v Ferrari
  • The Irishman
  • 1917
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    Alt: Joker, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Ad Astra, 6 Underground

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Joker
  • Little Women
  • Marriage Story
  • 1917
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    Alt: Jojo Rabbit, Pain and Glory, The King, Us, Ford v Ferrari

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Glasgow” – Wild Rose
  • “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” – Rocketman
  • “I’m Standing with You” – Breakthrough
  • “Into the Unknown” – Frozen II
  • “Stand Up” – Harriet
    Alt: “A Glass of Soju” – Parasite, “Spirit” – The Lion King, “Letter to My Godfather” – The Black Godfather

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • The Irishman
  • Joker
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • 1917
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Alt: Parasite, Little Women, Ad Astra

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Dolemite is My Name
  • The Irishman
  • Little Women
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Rocketman
    Alt: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Alita: Battle Angel
  • Avengers: Endgame
  • The Irishman
  • The Lion King
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
    Alt: 1917, Gemini Man, Transformers: Dark Fate

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

  • Bombshell
  • Dolemite is My Name
  • Judy
  • 1917
  • Rocketman
    Alt: Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Downton Abbey

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

  • Hair Love
  • He Can’t Live Without Cosmos
  • Kitbull
  • The Physics of Sorrow
  • Sister
    Alt: Memorable, Mind My Mind, Hors Piste

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

  • Fire in Paradise
  • Ghosts of Sugar Land
  • In the Absence
  • Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
  • The Nightcrawlers
    Alt: Life Overtakes Me, Stay Close

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

  • Brotherhood
  • Little Hands
  • Miller & Son
  • The Neighbor’s Window
  • Refuge
    Alt: Nefta Football Club

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