Final Predictions: 70th Primetime Emmy Awards

This is the first time I’m predicting the Emmys, honoring excellence in television. The show will be on September 17, 2018 on NBC.

On the drama side, I’m all rooting for The Handmaid’s Tale, The Crown, as well as Stranger Things, This is Us, and Westworld. In comedy, with Veep out of contention for now, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is my pick.

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DRAMA CATEGORIES

SERIES – This is a tough race. The Handmaid’s Tale and Game of Thrones seem like the frontrunners, but watch out for The Crown.

  1. The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
  2. Game of Thrones (HBO)
  3. The Crown (Netflix)
  4. The Americans (Showtime)
  5. Stranger Things (Netflix)
  6. Westworld (HBO)
  7. This is Us (NBC)

LEADING ACTRESS – This feels like a five-way race, but I believe Moss will still prevail with that powerhouse submission. But this is a close race: from Foy down to Maslany, all have their narratives that make sense for a win. And don’t count out Wood: Westworld has its fanbase, and with a tight race, Wood could prevail with 17-20% votes.

  1. Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale – “The Last Ceremony”
  2. Claire Foy – The Crown – “Dear Mrs. Kennedy”
  3. Keri Russell – The Americans – “The Summit”
  4. Sandra Oh – Killing Eve – “I Have a Thing About Bathrooms”
  5. Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black – “To Right the Wrongs of Many”
  6. Evan Rachel Wood – Westworld – “Reunion”

LEADING ACTOR – Here’s where I’m pulling for a surprise win. Brown is the repeat winner, but his submission this year is not as strong as last year, and This is Us‘ season is more dramatically focused on Ventimiglia. That might cause a vote split, and Rhys will most likely benefit from it.

  1. Milo Ventimiglia – This is Us – “The Car”
  2. Matthew Rhys – The Americans – “START”
  3. Sterling K. Brown – This is Us – “Number Three”
  4. Jeffrey Wright – Westworld – “The Passenger”
  5. Jason Bateman – Ozark – “The Toll”
  6. Ed Harris – Westworld – “Vanishing Point”

SUPPORTING ACTRESS – I made the vote-splitting argument in Leading Actor, but not here. Even with Bledel and Dowd as past winners for Handmaid’s, Strahovski arguably the MVP of the season and benefits from an almost-lead character. Or Dowd could easily repeat. Or if vote-splitting does happen, Newton and Kirby would benefit.

  1. Yvonne Strahovski – The Handmaid’s Tale – “Women’s Work”
  2. Ann Dowd – The Handmaid’s Tale – “June”
  3. Thandie Newton – Westworld – “Akane no Mai”
  4. Vanessa Kirby – The Crown – “Beryl”
  5. Lena Headey – Game of Thrones – “The Dragon and the Wolf”
  6. Alexis Bledel – The Handmaid’s Tale – “Unwomen”
  7. Millie Bobby Brown – Stranger Things – “Chapter Four: The Pollywog”

SUPPORTING ACTOR – Meh. The potent performances here (Harbour and Smith) are leads, and the best contenders I’ve seen are unrecognized: Justin Hartley in This is Us and Noah Schnapp in Stranger Things. Everyone seems to predict Harbour, or maybe they will default go with Dinklage. But be warned: Joseph Fiennes could happen. The Handmaid’s Tale never lost an acting award. I’m predicting it as a surprise win.

  1. Joseph Fiennes – The Handmaid’s Tale – “First Blood”
  2. Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones – “The Dragon and the Wolf”
  3. David Harbour – Stranger Things – Chapter Three: Will the Wise”
  4. Matt Smith – The Crown – “Mystery Man”
  5. Mandy Patinkin – Homeland – “Species Jump”
  6. Nikolaj Coster-Waldau – Game of Thrones – “The Spoils of War”

DIRECTING – Another category where vote split might happen. Podeswa is the bigger (overdue) name from the Game of Thrones, but Beyond the Wall (I heard) has the big battle scene. I’m hesitating to go with Handmaid’s to take this with a more low-key episode compared to, say, its season opener. Damn it, I’m going with Podeswa.

  1. Jeremy Podeswa – Game of Thrones – “The Dragon and the Wolf”
  2. Kari Skogland – The Handmaid’s Tale – “After”
  3. Alan Taylor – Game of Thrones – “Beyond the Wall”
  4. Stephen Daldry – The Crown – “Paterfamilias”
  5. The Duffer Brothers – Stranger Things – “Chapter Nine: The Gate”
  6. Jason Bateman – Ozark – “The Toll”
  7. Daniel Sackheim – Ozark – “Tonight We Improvise”

WRITING – This is where I think Handmaid’s will lose. Or not? I have no idea. I’m going with The Americans‘ famous series finale.

  1. The Americans – “START”
  2. The Handmaid’s Tale – “June”
  3. The Crown – “Mystery Man”
  4. Killing Eve – “Nice Face”
  5. Game of Thrones – “The Dragon and the Wolf”
  6. Stranger Things – “Chapter Nine: The Gate”

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COMEDY CATEGORIES

SERIES – People say it’s Atlanta. I’m going Maisel.

  1. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
  2. Atlanta (FX)
  3. Barry (HBO)
  4. GLOW (Netflix)
  5. Black-ish (ABC)
  6. Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
  7. Silicon Valley (HBO)
  8. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)

LEADING ACTRESS – Again, Maisel.

  1. Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “Thank You and Good Night”
  2. Tracie Ellis Ross – Black-ish – “Elder. Scam”
  3. Pamela Adlon – Better Things – “Eulogy”
  4. Allison Janney – Mom – “Phone Confetti and a Wee Dingle”
  5. Lily Tomlin – Grace and Frankie – “The Home”
  6. Issa Rae – Insecure – “Hella Great”

LEADING ACTOR – First, I thought of going with Hader. But then, Glover is in THE comedy episode of the season.

  1. Donald Glover – Atlanta – “Teddy Perkins”
  2. Bill Hader – Barry – “Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast, and Keep Going”
  3. Larry David – Curb Your Enthusiasm – “Fatwa!”
  4. Anthony Anderson – Black-ish – “Advance to Go (Collect $200)”
  5. Ted Danson – The Good Place – “Dance Dance Resolution”
  6. William H. Macy – Shameless – “Sleepwalking”

SUPPORTING ACTRESS – I’m predicting McKinnon, though I’m not confident. I can easily see Borstein (frontrunning series), Metcalf (industry fave), or Mullally (allegedly a strong submission) winning.

  1. Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live – “Host: Bill Hader”
  2. Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “Doink”
  3. Laurie Metcalf – Roseanne – “No Country for Old Women”
  4. Megan Mullally – Will and Grace – “Rosario’s Quinceanera”
  5. Betty Gilpin – GLOW – “Debbie Does Something”
  6. Zazie Beetz – Atlanta – “Helen”
  7. Aidy Bryant – Saturday Night Live – “Host: Chadwick Boseman”
  8. Leslie Jones – Saturday Night Live – “Host: Donald Glover”

SUPPORTING ACTOR – I’m going with the overdue industry favorite.

  1. Henry Winkler – Barry – “Chapter Four: Commit … to YOU”
  2. Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “Thank You and Good Night”
  3. Brian Tyree Henry – Atlanta – “Woods”
  4. Louie Anderson – Baskets – “Thanksgiving”
  5. Kenan Thompson – Saturday Night Live – “Host: John Mulaney”
  6. Titus Burgess – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt – “Kimmy and the Beest!”
  7. Alec Baldwin – Saturday Night Live – “Host: Donald Glover”

DIRECTING – As I’ve said, Teddy Perkins is the comedy episode of the year. But if Maisel emerges as victorious, it’ll be easy for Sherman-Palladino to get this.

  1. Hiro Murai – Atlanta – “Teddy Perkins”
  2. Amy Sherman-Palladino – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “Pilot”
  3. Donald Glover – Atlanta – “FUBU”
  4. Bill Hader – Barry – “Chapter One: Make Your Mark”
  5. Jesse Peretz – GLOW – “Pilot”
  6. Mike Judge – Silicon Valley – “Initial Coin Offering”
  7. Mark Cendrwoski – The Big Bang Theory – “The Bow Tie Asymmetry”

WRITING – Maisel should get this easily. That was a FANTASTIC pilot.

  1. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “Pilot”
  2. Barry – “Chapter One: Make Your Mark”
  3. Atlanta – “Alligator Man”
  4. Barry – “Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast and Keep Going”
  5. Atlanta – “Barbershop”
  6. Silicon Valley – “Fifty-One Percent”

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LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE CATEGORIES

LIMITED SERIES – After the Creative Emmys, Versace feels unstoppable.

  1. The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
  2. Godless (Netflix)
  3. Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
  4. Genius: Picasso (Nat Geo)
  5. The Alienist (TNT)

LEADING ACTRESS – Ugh, okay.

  1. Laura Dern – The Tale
  2. Michelle Dockery – Godless
  3. Jessica Biel – The Sinner
  4. Sarah Paulson – American Horror Story: Cult
  5. Regina King – Seven Seconds
  6. Edie Falco – Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders

LEADING ACTOR – Criss walks away with a bravura performance, unless Legend spoils it.

  1. Darren Criss – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
  2. John Legend – Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert
  3. Benedict Cumberbatch – Patrick Melrose
  4. Jesse Plemons – Black Mirror: USS Callister
  5. Jeff Daniels – The Looming Tower
  6. Antonio Banderas – Genius: Picasso

SUPPORTING ACTRESS – I don’t know if it’s an actual prediction or a wishful thinking: I want Judith Light to happen. But if someone’s to spoil, it’s wither Wever or Cruz.

  1. Judith Light – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story – “A Random Killing”
  2. Merritt Wever – Godless – “The Ladies of La Belle”
  3. Penelope Cruz – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story – “Ascent”
  4. Sarah Bareilles – Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert
  5. Adina Porter – American Horror Story: Cult – “11/9”
  6. Letitia Wright – Black Mirror: Black Museum

SUPPORTING ACTORVersace will split. It’s either the standout from an overperformer (Superstar) or with an Emmy favorite (Daniels in Godless).

  1. Brandon Victor Dixon – Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert
  2. Jeff Daniels – Godless – “An Incident at Creede”
  3. Finn Wittrock – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story – “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”
  4. Édgar Ramírez – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story – “Ascent”
  5. Michael Stuhlbarg – The Looming Tower – “9/11”
  6. John Leguizamo – Waco – “The Strangers Across the Street”
  7. Ricky Martin – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story – “The Man Who Would Be Vogue”

DIRECTING – I could easily see David Lynch going for a surprise win.

  1. Ryan Murphy – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story – The Man Who Would Be Vogue”
  2. Scott Frank – Godless
  3. David Lynch – Twin Peaks
  4. Edward Berger – Patrick Melrose
  5. David Leveaux and Alex Rudzinski – Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert
  6. Craig Zisk – The Looming Tower – “9/11”
  7. Barry Levinson – Paterno

WRITING – Hmmm.

  1. Black Mirror: USS Callister
  2. The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story – “House by the Lake”
  3. Godless
  4. Twin Peaks
  5. Patrick Melrose
  6. American Vandal – “Clean Up”

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OTHER CATEGORIES

VARIETY SKETCH SERIES: Saturday Night Live
VARIETY TALK SERIES: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM: RuPaul’s Drag Race
DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL: The Oscars
WRITING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL: Michelle Wolf: Nice Lady

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What are your predictions?

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