If there’s any reason to be excited about the 91st Academy Awards, it is definitely not the cringe-inducing introduction of the “Best Popular Film” nor the blatant disrespect to film craftspeople by relegating the less popular categories to pre-edited clips during commercial breaks. Seriously, shame on ABC for putting these profit-driven pressures to the Oscars and shame on the Academy for giving in and not becoming steadfast in its supposed commitment to film awareness and appreciation.
As a queer film school alumnus, these are the categories that always interest me:
- Best Picture, for becoming a reflection of the strength of the field of contenders vis-à-vis the over-all pulse of the Academy’s current membership;
- Best Directing, for rewarding the visionaries of cinema;
- Best Original/Adapted Screenplay, for shedding a light on this writer’s craft;
- Best Foreign Language Film, for celebrating the diversity of cinematic voices around
Europethe world (they’re making strides these past years);
- Best Documentary Feature, for putting a spotlight on these courageous artists who does an almost-journalistic method of filmmaking.
And of course, Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role.
Yes, Supporting Actress also gets some of my love, but Leading Actress category most likely reflects the state of the mostly male-driven film industry in its efforts to represent stories of different kinds of women. We should be past the time when we only see women as whores, wives, or witches. History has suppressed stories about women, and now more than ever, it is very urgent to tell female-driven stories in all platforms.
That is perhaps the reason why I was drawn to television. Remember when I started my own project here called Beyond the Ballot: Women in Film and the Academy Awards?
It was supposed to be my exploration of the female lead roles in the past years, but then I gradually leaned towards witnessing complex roles for women in television. Needless to say, I am emotionally invested in the Best Actress Race at the Emmys.
Going back, I have read some comments saying that this year for female leads in film is thin compared to last year. Truth be told, there has been an embarrassment of riches for female leads in contention since 2015 (and I would even dare say 2014).
Sony Pictures Classics did the right thing of holding back the film from its 2017 premiere at TIFF to its release this weekend (the film was screened a week earlier in the Philippines, giving me the chance to see it). And it must be said: Glenn Close is glorious in this film. Though the film struggles to catch up with her greatness, she owns this film, and it would be a satisfying win given the performance and the overdue narrative. She is rightfully the early frontrunner of this race.
However, the race is far from over. There are a lot of possible contenders, from expected Best Picture players to potential longshots, this year should prove to be an exciting year for Best Actress. Therefore, precursor awards should not feel lazy preordaining a selected few just because they feel the need to predict the ultimate winner at the Academy Awards.
As of August 17, 2018, here are my predictions for Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
PREDICTED NOMINEES (a combination of educated and wildcard guesses):
01. Glenn Close – The Wife
02. Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
03. Viola Davis – Widows
04. Kiki Layne – If Beale Street Could Talk
05. Toni Collette – Hereditary
SOLID CONTENDERS (if all of these fare well, look at here for the alternate choices):
06. Saoirse Ronan – Mary, Queen of Scots
07. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
08. Nicole Kidman – Destroyer
09. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
10. Carey Mulligan – Wildlife
11. Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns
12. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex
13. Emma Thompson – The Children Act
14. Judi Dench – Red Joan
15. Keira Knightley – Colette
IN THE MIX (definitely in the hunt for the nomination):
16. Julianne Moore – Gloria Bell
17. Margot Robbie – Mary, Queen of Scors
18. Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Kindergarten Teacher
19. Taraji P. Henson – The Best of Enemies
20. Sandra Bullock – Bird Box
21. Michelle Pfeiffer – Where is Kyra?
22. Rachel Weisz – Disobedience
23. Emma Stone – The Favourite
24. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place
25. Renee Zellweger – Judy
POTENTIAL LONGSHOTS (never count them out; I once had Natalie Portman in Jackie as a longshot, and look where she ended up):
26. Kristen Stewart – JT Leroy
27. Mary Elizabeth Winstead – All About Nina
28. Keira Knightley – The Aftermath
29. Charlize Theron – Tully
30. Thomasin McKenzie – Leave No Trace
31. Julianne Moore – Bel Canto
32. Hilary Swank – What They Had
33. Claire Foy – The Girl in the Spider’s Web
34. Penelope Cruz – Everybody Knows
35. Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade
36. Rachel McAdams – Disobedience
37. Julia Roberts – Ben is Back
38. Rosamund Pike – A Private War
39. Dakota Johnson – Suspiria
40. Constance Wu – Crazy Rich Asians
41. Elizabeth Debicki – Vita and Virginia
42. Kathryn Hahn – Private Life
43. Chloe Grace Moretz – The Miseducation of Cameron Post
44. Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Fast Color
45. Amanda Seyfried – First Reformed
46. Jessica Chastain – Woman Walks Ahead
47. Andie McDowell – Love After Love
48. Chloe Sevigny – Lizzie
49. Anne Hathaway – Serenity
50. Natalie Portman – Annihilation / Rooney Mara – Mary Magdalene
Did I miss any other possible Best Actress contenders?