90th Academy Awards – FINAL PREDICTIONS

Let’s get crazy with these predictions.

Best Picture

Since its implementation in 2009 (year in film), the impact of the preferential ballot has never been so crucial. This is the year where reliable stats (precursor awards) are tested and most likely going to be broken.

I’m gonna do the predictions in a different way. I’m gonna try to predict like how the preferential ballot works. This year, the members’ ranking of the nominees in the ballots would be so important to decide which film will win. I’m not expecting any of the nominees to immediately reach 50% + 1, the key to the win. This is where the rankings will go into play.

This method is so not fail-safe. As I “redistribute”, it’s all gonna be educated guesses. This is where I expect my predictions to fail, and I couldn’t care less.

This has been the most exciting year at the Oscars history since I started watching it (yes, it started in 2009).

Let’s do round 1.

  1. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Get Out
  4. Lady Bird
  5. Dunkirk
  6. Phantom Thread
  7. Call Me by Your Name
  8. Darkest Hour
  9. The Post

Take out The Post. Which film/s will benefit from it the most? Probably The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour, and Dunkirk.

Let’s do round 2.

  1. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Get Out
  4. Lady Bird
  5. Dunkirk
  6. Phantom Thread
  7. Call Me by Your Name
  8. Darkest Hour

Take out Darkest Hour. Which film/s will benefit from it? Probably The Shape of Water and Dunkirk.

Let’s do round 3.

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  3. Get Out
  4. Dunkirk
  5. Lady Bird
  6. Phantom Thread
  7. Call Me by Your Name
  8. Take out Call Me by Your Name (ouch). Which will benefit from it? Probably Get Out and Lady Bird.

Let’s do round 4.

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Get Out
  3. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  4. Lady Bird
  5. Dunkirk
  6. Phantom Thread

Take out Phantom Thread. Which film will benefit? Probably The Shape of Water, Get Out, and Dunkirk.

Let’s do round 5.

  1. Get Out
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  4. Dunkirk
  5. Lady Bird

Take out Lady Bird. Get Out and The Shape of Water would most likely benefit.

Let’s do round 6.

  1. Get Out
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  4. Dunkirk

Take out Dunkirk. Get Out and The Shape of Water would most likely benefit.

Let’s do round 7.

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Get Out
  3. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

This looks stupid right now. However, this is where the rankings are so important. Three Billboards is divisive. The Shape of Water and Get Out are hard to hate but also have their dissenters.

Again, the number of votes and the ranking in the individual ballots matter so much.

So…

I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict… Get Out?

So, if I’m gonna do a ranking of the nominees in terms of chances of winning, it’s gonna be.

  1. Get Out
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  4. Dunkirk
  5. Lady Bird
  6. Phantom Thread
  7. Call Me by Your Name
  8. Darkest Hour
  9. The Post

However, make no mistake: the top 5 are solid contenders, and I’m not going to count any of those out yet. Just look at those five for the winner. Now, the ranking of the voters supporting the bottom 4 is going to be the deciding factor to which of the top 5 will win.

I am so ready to be wrong about this.

Best Director

  1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
  2. Jordan Peele – Get Out
  3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
  4. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
  5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

Unless Peele, Gerwig, or even Nolan, gets in here, del Toro is a sure thing here, even if The Shape of Water doesn’t win Best Picture.

Best Actress

  1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
  3. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
  4. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
  5. Meryl Streep – The Post

A Saoirse Ronan upset is still in play, but McDormand looks solid here.

Best Actor

  1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
  2. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
  3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
  4. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
  5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Inasmuch as I’d want Chalamet to win an upset, Oldman looks unshakable here.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
  2. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
  3. Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
  4. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
  5. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Here’s where I’d gamble and predict a surprise win. Janney is the logical prediction (precursors, industry love, etc.). Maybe it’s the fact that they’d give Lady Bird something and would pick this one.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
  3. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
  4. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
  5. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Here’s what confounds me: his character has gotten a lot of backlash recently, but there’s no alternate to win. Not even Dafoe with his veteran narrative, not even Plummer with his last-minute replacement. An industry favorite, Rockwell looks locked here.

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Get Out
  2. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  3. Lady Bird
  4. The Shape of Water
  5. The Big Sick

If Three Billboards wins Best Picture, logic dictates the same here. If they want Gerwig to win something, they can do it here. If The Shape of Water sweeps, consider this as well. However, it would look really bad to let Get Out go home empty-handed, and Jordan Peele could secure his win here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Call Me by Your Name
  2. Mudbound
  3. Molly’s Game
  4. Logan
  5. The Disaster Artist

The only sure thing to reward Call Me by Your Name, being the only Best Picture nominee here. Watch out for Mudbound, though.

Best Animated Feature

  1. Coco
  2. The Breadwinner
  3. Loving Vincent
  4. Ferdinand
  5. The Boss Baby

Best Documentary Feature

  1. Last Men in Aleppo
  2. Icarus
  3. Faces Places
  4. Strong Island
  5. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. Chile – A Fantastic Woman
  2. Hungary – On Body and Soul
  3. Lebanon – The Insult
  4. Sweden – The Square
  5. Russia – Loveless

Best Cinematography

  1. Blade Runner 2049
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Dunkirk
  4. Mudbound
  5. Darkest Hour

Best Film Editing

  1. Dunkirk
  2. Baby Driver
  3. The Shape of Water
  4. I, Tonya
  5. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Original Score

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Phantom Thread
  3. Dunkirk
  4. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

# 1 to # 3 could definitely happen.

Best Original Song

  1. “This is Me” – The Greatest Showman
  2. “Mystery of Love” – Call Me by Your Name
  3. “Mighty River” – Mudbound
  4. “Remember Me” – Coco
  5. “Stand Up for Something” – Marshall

All of these contenders have solid narratives to win. I’m just picking “This is Me” because of the song’s ubiquity. I’m pulling for a “Mystery of Love” upset.

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Dunkirk
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Baby Driver
  4. Blade Runner 2049
  5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Sound Editing

  1. Dunkirk
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Blade Runner 2049
  4. Baby Driver
  5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Production Design

  1. The Shape of Water
  2. Blade Runner 2049
  3. Dunkirk
  4. Darkest Hour
  5. Beauty and the Beast

Best Costume Design

  1. Phantom Thread
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. Beauty and the Beast
  4. Victoria & Abdul
  5. Darkest Hour

I’m reminded that Fantastic Beasts won over more formidable contenders last year. With that, I’m not counting Beauty and the Beast out despite this category’s heavyweights.

Best Visual Effects

  1. Blade Runner 2049
  2. War for the Planet of the Apes
  3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  4. Kong: Skull Island
  5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

With no Best Picture contenders here, this could be Apes’ win. However, I’m Sticking with Blade Runner.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Darkest Hour
  2. Wonder
  3. Victoria & Abdul

The other winner of Gary Oldman’s Best Actor award.

Best Animated Short

  1. Negative Space
  2. Revolting Rhymes
  3. Lou
  4. Dear Basketball
  5. Garden Party

Best Documentary Short Subject

  1. Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
  2. Traffic Stop
  3. Edith+Eddie
  4. Heroin(e)
  5. Knife Skills

Best Live Action Short

  1. DeKalb Elementary
  2. My Nephew Emmett
  3. The Silent Child
  4. Watu Wote/All of Us
  5. The Eleven O’ Clock
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