OSCAR PREDICTIONS – July 19, 2011

Before my next post for the year 2001 (which is, for your information, Gosford Park), I decided to post my predictions for this year’s Oscars.

This post could have arrived later, but I made this in July 19, so becomes the title.

Here are my early predictions for the top 5 categories (picture, acting categories). Included are the temporary nominees and those competing just below the line. Here they are:

Best Picture

  • The Artist – If nostalgia  works for them even if it is not ordinary…..
  • Contagion – Offbeat competitor, but what a cast, and what a concept!
  • A Dangerous Method – Maybe too upsetting, but looks damn good.
  • The Descendants – George Clooney attracting votes isn’t possible.
  • Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – A topical issue discussed. And again, what a cast!
  • Hugo – As long as Scorsese’s making movies, you can never ignore him.
  • The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo – The original adaptation was so well received, Fincher and Mara here from The Social Network.
  • Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen’s most successful film in recent memory is definitely in contention.
  • The Tree of Life – High profile film winning the Palm D’Or gives it a big boost even if it is probably too high concept.
  • War Horse – Spielberg back in epic form.

Also running:

  • Carnage
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part 2
  • Super 8
  • The Iron Lady

Notes: The nominees for this category may vary in number, but if they will decide that it will be 10, then here it is.

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Best Actress

  • Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) – Dream project, gender bending, overdue since 1987.
  • Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia) – Cannes win could help. Overdue (they’ve ignored her for a long time already).
  • Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method) – In a strong contender, juicy role, showy, one of the young talents of her generation.
  • Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo) – The Social Network. Memories of Noomi Rapace. ‘Twas a hit critically, so what’s to expect?
  • Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) – Biopic = mimicry. British person = accent. Overdue = Meryl.

Also running:

  • Elizabeth Olsen (Martha May Marcy Marlene)
  • Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
  • Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
  • Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower)

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Best Actor

  • George Clooney (The Descendants) – Some emotional character he has. He’s charming and talented.
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar) – Biopic. OVERDUE, OVERDUE, OVERDUE!
  • Jean DuJardin (The Artist) – Cannes win could help. It’s a chance for some variety in this field. Also a good timing for some foreign nominee.
  • Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method) – He’s in his peak right now (or is this just the start?). Definitely in a strong movie.
  • Jeremy Irvine (War Horse) – Call me crazy for predicting this, but if War Horse is really strong, why not also for him?

Also running:

  • Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
  • Ryan Gosling (Ides of March)
  • Sean Penn (This Must Be The Place)
  • Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo)

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Best Supporting Actress

  • Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) – After The Blind Side, wouldn’t it be nice to prove again that Sandra is really good?
  • Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life) – Maybe memories of her would fade away, but if marketing enters and does well, given her film, she could.
  • Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus) – A respected actress who hasn’t been recognized by the Academy for quite some time.
  • Andrea Riseborough (W.E.) – Movie will not create a big buzz, but she’s already starting to have support for this.
  • Marisa Tomei (Ides of March) – With a talented actress like her, she could do something great. She could do this.

Also running:

  • Judy Davis (The Eye of the Storm)
  • Naomi Watts (J. Edgar)
  • Kate Winslet (Carnage)
  • Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)

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Best Supporting Actor

  • John Hawkes (Martha May Marcy Marlene) – In an another indie film that gained buzz in Sundance. A repeat for him?
  • Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) – Could be a big talent. Lead character, but so young, so easily demote here.
  • Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method) – An intense actor in a probable BP nominee. He does good work, and 90% or less, this is a success.
  • Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life) – People will still remember him after a year simply because he’s Brad Pitt. Buzz for the film may help him.
  • Christopher Plummer (Beginners) – After The Last Station is a intriguing role. If he does it well, the Academy might feel he needs another one.

Also running:

  • Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady)
  • Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
  • Colin Firth (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
  • Ben Kingsley (Hugo)

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What are your early predictions?

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3 thoughts on “OSCAR PREDICTIONS – July 19, 2011

  1. I refuse to consider The Artist in any major category 🙂

    from the trailer, it looks to me just like a sad rip-off of A Star Is Born (37 one), with a very washed-up B&W cinematography, and a not very inspired casting choice of the actress.
    we’ll see

    Like

  2. Wow. Your blog is incredible. I can’t comment on too many of these predictions, only because I’ve never heard of most of them. I’ve heard of “The Tree of Life” with Brad Pitt. It looks intriguing. I’ve seen “Midnight In Paris”, and I thought it was wonderful. I’m certain it will get some Oscar noms. I also went to Youtube and watched the trailer for “The Artist”, and it looks fairly weird. It could be a good movie, but it’s definitely different.

    Like

    • Thanks for those words for the second time! 😀

      I’m not sure Midnight in Paris will get “noms”. Maybe Original Screenplay, but that’s it, I guess. The Tree of Life could sustain the heat for Best Pic nom even if the year will soon become crowded. Well, The Artist…. if the Academy wants to throw in some spice on the race, then this is the perfect choice to take.

      Like

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