Is THE KING’S SPEECH taking over the race? (Or does the number of noms really matter?)

After the three consecutive wins of The King’s Speech in vital awards (PGA, DGA, SAG), I start to think that The Social Network (which is, in fact, really great) is not really safe for the BP win. Even if it almost swept all of the critics’ orgs, the NBR, and the Golden Globes, those three are the ones I’m upset that TSN didn’t get. So, this just means that this is a neck-to-neck race, huh?

So, we see that the Golden Globes, PGA, DGA, and SAG are the very vital components for you to win the Oscar BP. Here is a short look at the past 15 years of the awards circuit trend.

1995

  • GG: Sense and Sensibility / Babe
  • PGA: Apollo 13
  • DGA: Apollo 13
  • SAG: Apollo 13
  • OSCAR: Braveheart (0 of 4 precursors)

1996

  • GG: The English Patient / Evita
  • PGA: The English Patient
  • DGA: The English Patient
  • SAG: The Birdcage
  • OSCAR: The English Patient (3 of 4 precursors)

1997

  • GG: Titanic / As Good As It Gets
  • PGA: Titanic
  • DGA: Titanic
  • SAG: The Full Monty
  • OSCAR: Titanic (3 of 4 precursors)

1998

  • GG: Saving Private Ryan / Shakespeare in Love
  • PGA: Saving Private Ryan
  • DGA: Saving Private Ryan
  • SAG: Shakespeare in Love
  • OSCAR: Shakespeare in Love (2 of 4 precursors)

1999

  • GG: American Beauty / Toy Story 2
  • PGA: American Beauty
  • DGA: American Beauty
  • SAG: American Beauty
  • OSCAR: American Beauty (4 of 4 precursors)

2000

  • GG: Gladiator / Almost Famous
  • PGA: Gladiator
  • DGA: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
  • SAG: Traffic
  • OSCAR: Gladiator (2 of 4 precursors)

2001

  • GG: A Beautiful Mind / Moulin Rouge!
  • PGA: Moulin Rouge!
  • DGA: A Beautiful Mind
  • SAG: Gosford Park
  • OSCAR: A Beautiful Mind (2 of 4 precursors)

2002

  • GG: The Hours / Chicago
  • PGA: Chicago
  • DGA: Chicago
  • SAG: Chicago
  • OSCAR: Chicago (4 of 4 precursors)

2003

  • GG: LOTR: The Return of the King / Lost in Translation
  • PGA: LOTR: The Return of the King
  • DGA: LOTR: The Reutn of the King
  • SAG: LOTR: The Return of the King
  • OSCAR: LOTR: The Return of the King (4 of 4 precursors)

2004

  • GG: The Aviator / Sideways
  • PGA: The Aviator
  • DGA: Million Dollar Baby
  • SAG: Sideways
  • OSCAR: Million Dollar Baby (1 of 4 precursors)

2005

  • GG: Brokeback Mountain / Walk the Line
  • PGA: Brokeback Mountain
  • DGA: Brokeback Mountain
  • SAG: Crash
  • OSCAR: Crash (1 of 4 precursors)

2006

  • GG: Babel / Dreamgirls
  • PGA: Little Miss Sunshine
  • DGA: The Departed
  • SAG: Little Miss Sunshine
  • OSCAR: The Departed (1 of 4 precursors)

2007

  • GG: Atonement / Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber from Fleet Street
  • PGA: No Country for Old Men
  • DGA: No Country for Old Men
  • SAG: No Country for Old Men
  • OSCAR: No Country for Old Men (3 of 4 precursors)

2008

  • GG: Slumdog Millionaire / Vicky Cristina Barcelona
  • PGA: Slumdog Millionaire
  • DGA: Slumdog Millionaire
  • SAG: Slumdog Millionaire
  • OSCAR: Slumdog Millionaire (4 of 4 precursors)

2009

  • GG: Avatar / The Hangover
  • PGA: The Hurt Locker
  • DGA: The Hurt Locker
  • SAG: Inglurious Basterds
  • OSCAR: The Hurt Locker (2 of 4 precursors)

2010

  • GG: The Social Network / The Kids Are All Right
  • PGA: The King’s Speech
  • DGA: The King’s Speech
  • SAG: The King’s Speech
  • OSCAR: ? ? ? ? ? (The Social Nework or The King’s Speech) ? ? ? ? ?

The trend is that at least, you need to win one of those (don’t count Braveheart, alright?). It doesn’t really matter if you win all or many, but it does sure help. Here is a table containing the number of BP winners that get the same number of awards from the vital four awards.

4 awards – 4 of 15 (27%)

3 awards – 3 of 15 (20%)

2 awards – 4 of 15 (27%)

1 award – 3 of 15 (20%)

No award – 1 of 15 (6%)

The King’s Speech won 3. The Social Network won 1. They both have 20% chance of winning, if you’ll look at the history. No one’s really ahead cuz it’s a neck-to-neck race. TSN fans, myself included, don’t worry. It’s a 50-50 race.

Also, if you’ll look at the number of nominations of the BP winner and its closest competitor for the last 15 years, they do not really mean “more noms is exactly for the win.” At bold is the winner. Take a look at this:

1995

  • Braveheart – 10 / Apollo 13 – 9

1996

  • The English Patient – 12 / Fargo – 7

1997

  • Titanic – 14 / LA Confidential – 9

1998

  • Shakespeare in Love – 13 / Saving Private Ryan – 11

1999

  • American Beauty – 8 / The Sixth Sense – 7

2000

  • Gladiator – 12 / Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon – 10

2001

  • LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring – 13 / A Beautiful Mind – 8

2002

  • Chicago – 13 / Gangs of New York – 10

2003

  • LOTR: The Return of the King – 11 / Master and Commander – 10

2004

  • The Aviator – 11 / Million Dollar Baby – 7

2005

  • Brokeback Mountain – 8 / Crash – 6

2006

  • Babel – 7 / The Departed – 5

2007

  • No Country for Old Men – 8 / There Will Be Blood – 8

2008

  • The Curious Case…  – 13 / Slumdog Millionaire – 10

2009

  • Avatar – 9 / The Hurt Locker – 9

2010

  • The King’s Speech – 12 / The Social Network – 8

The 90’s generally proved that “more noms=win.” After the win of Million Dollar Baby, the trend had changed. It doesn’t always mean thet if you have the most number of nominations, then you’ll win. Moreso, the only two cases where the winner had the most number of nominations was that it was also with equal number of nominations with its closest competitor.

It doesn’t really matter if Harvy Weinstein is a great campaigner, he’s still a hit or miss. Did well with Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) and The Reader, but failed for pushing too much (Cotillard and Laurent for Best Actress last year).

I guess the only option for The Social Network to seal the deal is to have a stronger campaign. But still, it’s a 50-50 race. 😉

Which movie between the two do you prefer? Which one do you think will win?

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7 thoughts on “Is THE KING’S SPEECH taking over the race? (Or does the number of noms really matter?)

  1. Great analysis! Glad to see that “The Social Network” may not be as hopeless as everyone’s saying, because even though I DID enjoy “The King’s Speech” it would make me really sad to see it beat TSN on Oscar night. TSN is just a masterpiece!

    Like

    • Thanks Robert!

      I almost thought it was hopeless. But glad I did some history reading and found out that TSN is not really hopeless at all, it just follows a trend.

      I loved TSN after the second and 3rd watching. Great film!

      Like

    • The guilds DEFINITELY matter!

      But let’s see. I know it’s really a close race, that’s why I am really excited. By the way, what’s your bet to win and whichmovie do you prefer from the two?

      Like

    • TSN is a great film. Too bad I haven’t seen TKS yet, but I have a feeling that I would actually love it.

      But I still feel bad for TSN, as it goes in a 50-50 race rather than actually sweeping the awards (which it deserves).

      Like

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